000 AXNT20 KNHC 221122 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Aug 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 14.8N 70.3W at 22/0900 UTC or 220 nm S of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas range from 15 to 17 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 210 nm of the center in the SE semicircle and 90 nm NW semicircle. Franklin is expected to turn northward today and strengthen slightly through Wed morning. This will bring Franklin to the southern coast of Hispaniola Wed. Franklin is forecast to move off the N coast of Hispaniola and into the Atlantic Ocean Thu. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of Hispaniola into Thursday. Significant and potentially life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides is possible over Hispaniola. Tropical Storm Harold is centered near 25.8N 95.1W at 22/0900 UTC or 135 nm ESE of Port Mansfield, Texas and moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas range from 13 to 14 ft near and north of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm of the center except in the SW quadrant. A westward motion is anticipated to continue through tonight, and Harold should move inland over south Texas by midday today. Heavy rainfall is likely across southern Texas and the northern part of Coahuila and Nuevo States, Mexico. Tropical Depression Gert is centered near 17.2N 58.8W at 22/0900 UTC or 250 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, and moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 240 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Gert is forecast to weaken to a remnant low later today while moving WNW. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest advisories on Franklin, Harold, and Gert at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 32W from 21N southward through a 1009 mb low (AL92) at 16N32W. It is moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 13N to 19N between 31W and 35W. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 2 days and a medium chance through 7 days. The northern tip of a tropical wave along 96W is producing scattered showers over the western Bay of Campeche. It should exit the basin later today. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near 16N17W to AL92 near 16N32W to 11N40W. The ITCZ continues from 11N40W to 10N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 11W and 20W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate to strong convection in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, south of 14N and west of 75W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The impacts associated with Tropical Storm Harold are mainly confined to areas north of 24N and west of 90W. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. Over the eastern Gulf fresh E winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail. Tropical Storm Harold is forecast to strengthen a bit more before moving inland into south Texas later today. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms and strong gusty winds with this system. Conditions will gradually improve in the wake of Tropical Storm Herald as high pressure builds in over the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The impacts associated with Tropical Storm Franklin are mainly occurring from 12N to 17N between 67W and 73W. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. Refer to the monsoon trough section for a description of convection in the SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE and winds and seas to 7 ft are likely occurring in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere in the W Caribbean, generally moderate winds and seas 3-6 ft prevail, except for fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba. Tropical Storm Franklin will move to Hispaniola on Wed, and N of Hispaniola Wed night. Tropical Depression Gert is near 17.2N 58.8W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Gert will become a remnant low later today before dissipating by tonight. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse off Hispaniola and the Windward Passage through tonight. Rough to very rough seas can be expected through early Wed in the eastern and central Caribbean. Conditions in the Caribbean will improve Wed night into early Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning for details on Tropical Depression Gert, and to the Tropical Waves section for details on Invest AL92. Enhanced by an upper-level low near 27N72W, scattered moderate convection is found near a surface trough north of 25N between 59W and 70W. The remnant low of Emily in near 23N44W 1008 mb, with a NNE-SSW surface trough extending through the low. Fresh to strong E winds and 8-10 ft seas are present north of the low. Scattered showers extend from 21N-30N between 37W-50W. Fresh trades prevail through the Bahamas to the Windward Passage, except for strong NE winds in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas are 6 ft or less. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to Hispaniola on Wed, and N of Hispaniola Wed night, reaching near 23N68W Thu, and near 24N64W Fri night while strengthening to a hurricane. Tropical Depression Gert will become a remnant low later today before dissipating by tonight. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse off Hispaniola and the Windward Passage through tonight. $$ Hagen