000 AXNT20 KNHC 220602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Aug 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 14.5N 70.2W at 22/0300 UTC or 240 nm S of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas range from 14 to 16 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is near the center and up to 100 nm in a east semi- circle. Franklin is expected to turn northward on Tue and strengthen slightly through Wed morning. This will bring Franklin at the southern coast of Hispaniola and near the northern coast of Hispaniola on Wed night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atlc for more details. Tropical Depression Gert is centered near 17.1N 58.4W at 22/0300 UTC or 280 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, and moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 9 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near and east of the center from 16N to 18N between 55W and 58W. Gert is forecast to weaken to a remnant low Tue morning while moving WNW. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Gert NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atlc for more details. Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 25.7N 93.3W at 22/0300 UTC or 225 nm ESE of Port Mansfield, Texas and moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas range from 12 to 15 ft near and north of the center. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 25N to 28N between 90W and 95W. The current general motion is anticipated to continue through Tue, and Nine should move inland over south Texas by midday Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast, and Nine is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Texas coast. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atlc for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 29W from 21N southward through a 1009 mb low (AL92) at 16N28W about 210 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found from 14N to 20N between 28W and 31W. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 2 days and a high chance through 7 days. The northern tip of a tropical wave is moving through the western Bay of Campeche near 95W and generating isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Please read the East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast just north of Dakar, then extends west-southwestward through a 1009 mb low (AL92) at 16N28W to 12N39W. An ITCZ continues from 12N39W to 09N54W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is occurring south of the trough from 05N to 12N between the Guinea- Bissau/Sierra Leone coast and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is present near the trough from 11N to 15N between 33W and 39W. Widely scattered showers exist up to 50 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection at the southwestern Caribbean Sea, north of Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on Tropical Depression Nine at the northwestern Gulf. Convergent easterly winds are causing isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Gulf. Outside the center of Tropical Depression Nine, fresh to strong NE to SE winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft dominate the northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are evident at the west-central and southwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 26.3N 96.0W early Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt with gusts 50 kt. It should move inland near 27.3N 99.5W Tue evening while weakening to a tropical depression, then become a remnant low well inland near 29N 103W by early Wed. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms with strong gusty winds well in advance of this system. Conditions will gradually improve in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Nine as high pressure builds in over the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on Tropical Storm Franklin at the central basin. Convergent easterly trades are generating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from near the Cayman Islands eastward across Jamaica, southern Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin. Outside the direct influence of Tropical Storm Franklin, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 8 to 13 ft exist at the central basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate easterly swell are noted for the eastern basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are found near the Cayman Islands and Windward Passage. Gentle monsoonal winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are evident north of Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to near 16N71W Tue evening with max winds 55 kt, and move N across Hispaniola late Wed and Wed evening. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse off Hispaniola and the Windward Passage tonight and again Tue night. Rough to very rough seas can be expected through early Wed in the eastern and central basin. Conditions in the Caribbean will improve Wed night into early Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning on Tropical Depression Nine, and the Tropical Waves section for Invest AL92 in the Atlantic Basin. Enhanced by an upper-level low near 27N71W, scattered moderate convection is found near a surface trough north of 25N between 59W and 75W. Convergent fresh to strong easterly winds north and northeast of the remnant low of Emily near 22N44W are producing scattered moderate convection north of 24N between 30W and 45W. Seas in the area range from 7 to 10 ft. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ for additional weather in the Atlantic basin. Outside the impact areas of Tropical Depression Nine, and north and northeast of remnant low of Emily, light to gentle with locally moderate NE to SE trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft dominate north of 20N between the northeast Africa coast and 65W, including near the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist north of 20N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast. From 08N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate easterly swell are found. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present from 10N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 40W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin currently in the central Caribbean Sea will cross Hispaniola Wed evening near 20N70W, be near 23N68W Thu evening with 55 kt winds. It will move to 24N66W Fri evening, then strengthen to a hurricane Sat evening near 26N66W. Tropical Depression Gert will become a remnant low Tue morning near 17.5N 59.5W before dissipating by Tue evening. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse off Hispaniola and the Windward Passage tonight and again Tue night. $$ Forecaster Chan