000 AXNT20 KNHC 171645 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Aug 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98): A broad area of low pressure, centered near 15N28W at 1009 mb, is partially associated with a tropical wave with an axis along 28W. It is moving WNW around 10 kt and is producing a broad area of disorganized scattered moderate convection from 09N to 17N between 22W and 32W. These showers and thunderstorms are impacting the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of this low is possible while it moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at around 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development early next week. The system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within 48 hours. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): A 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 12N39W, or about 900 nm WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 32W and 42W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while it moves WNW at around 10 kt across the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both special features. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please see Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave along 28W that has induced low pressure formation and that has a potential for tropical development. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 48W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 42W and 52W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 69W, from Hispaniola southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the northern portion of the wave in the vicinity of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 13N31W to 13N53W. Convection in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is primarily associated with low pressures and tropical waves described in the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front resides along the northern Gulf coast, where scattered moderate convection is occurring. Otherwise, high pressure prevails across the Gulf waters, with a weak pressure gradient supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, a surface ridge over the Gulf waters will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through Sat night. Looking ahead, a surface trough is expected to move across the Gulf from east to west Sun through early next week. The trough could form into a broad area of low pressure in the central or W Gulf by the beginning of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the south central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds are over the north central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are in the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in the central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft seas in the NW basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail over the eastern and central Caribbean during the next few days. Gentle to moderate tradewinds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for details on two low pressures in the central and eastern Atlantic that could become tropical cyclones. An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical Atlantic waters N of 20N. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 7 to 9 ft, are noted from 16N to 24N between 35W and 70W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere. The exception is a zone of fresh southerly winds N of the Bahamas, ahead of a stationary front that extends just inland in the SE U.S. Scattered moderate convection in association with this front is impacting waters N of the Bahamas. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong tradewinds will pulse off Hispaniola each evening through the next several days. Fresh tradewinds will develop south of 25N today then diminish on Sat. A cold front will approach the NW waters then stall. Fresh to locally strong SW winds ahead of the cold front can be expected today and tonight to the east of northern Florida. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. $$ KONARIK