599 AXNT20 KNHC 160606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Aug 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is over west Africa near 16W from 07N to 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N to 13N between 20W and 26W and E of the wave axis inland west Africa. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 17N between 17W and 20W. The tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later this morning. Some slow development of this system is possible later this week and into the weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward or northwestward across the eastern Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to become more unfavorable for development by early next week. The axis of a tropical wave is in the central Atlantic near 36W, from 07N to 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 30W and 43W. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next several days as it moves to the west- northwestward or northwestward between 10-15 mph across the tropical Atlantic through the weekend. The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Caribbean near 62W, from 10N to 18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered to isolated showers are occurring across the Windward Islands and adjacent waters. The axis of a tropical wave is moving across Central America near 85W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward into the east Pacific, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Dakar near 14N17W to 12N22W to 11N37W to 12N48W. See the Tropical Waves section above for a description of showers and thunderstorms. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient is across the basin providing light to gentle variable winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft, except in the Bay of Campeche where a surface trough is supporting moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 4 ft seas. Aside from slightly higher winds, the trough is generating scattered showers in the SW gulf. Similar convective activity is occurring across the north-central and NE coastal waters ahead of a stationary front N of the area. The tail of a surface trough that extends along most of the Florida Peninsula is supporting scattered heavy showers across the Florida Keys and the Florida Straits. Recent scatterometer data show locally fresh SE winds behind the trough in the Florida Straits. For the forecast, a trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through late week, supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan. Elsewhere, a ridge over the Gulf will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for a description of showers and thunderstorms occurring across the basin. The tail of a surface trough that extends from the Florida Peninsula is generating heavy showers across the western and central Cuba offshore waters and in the Yucatan Channel. Scattered to isolated showers are occurring in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough. Subtropical high pressure N of the area is maintaining moderate to fresh trades across the eastern, central and southwest Caribbean along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds are in the NW basin. For the forecast, ridging over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong winds across mainly the south-central Caribbean into today. Moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging dominate the entire subtropical waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh E winds W of 40W S of 25N and mainly fresh NE winds E of 40W. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh E winds will develop S of 25N starting Thu. A cold front will approach the NW waters then stall, but fresh SW winds can be expected Thu and Thu night in the NW waters. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. $$ Ramos