000 AXNT20 KNHC 141804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...Special Features... Meteo-France is forecasting possible northerly gale winds in their Agadir marine zone by 15/1200Z. Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from the eastern Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 08N to 17N between 26W and 35W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 15N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 37W and 43W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from Haiti southward to over the Colombia-Venezuela border. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over southeastern Cuba, Jamaica and near Haiti. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania-Senegal border, then extends southwestward through 13N30W to 09N48W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up south of the trough from 07N to 13N between Gambia-Sierra Leone coast and 20W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N48W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 150 nm north and 60 nm south of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The northern tip of a tropical wave over southern Mexico/East Pacific is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the western Bay of Campeche. A surface trough runs southward from the Florida Panhandle to the southeastern Gulf. Aided by a mid-level trough in the vicinity, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring at the central and east- central Gulf. A modest surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1017 mb high to near Tampico, Mexico. This feature is supporting light to gentle with locally moderate winds near showers, and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, a trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan. Elsewhere, the 1017 mb high and related ridge will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the Gulf into Fri night ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A robust upper-level low at the western basin near 16N83W is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the western basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. The Atlantic Ridge north of the area near 25N is sustaining a trade-wind regime across much of the basin. Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist for the central basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate easterly swell are present near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and near the Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, the Atlantic Ridge over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong winds across mainly the south-central Caribbean through mid week. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 28N between 78W and the Georgia- northeast Florida coast. A surface trough is causing similar conditions from the central Bahamas eastward to near 72W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic Ridge extending southwestward from a 10145 mb high near 35N47W across 31N62W to the northwest Bahamas is providing light to gentle with locally moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 20N between 60W and the Georgia-Florida coast. At the central Atlantic north of 20N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident between 25W and 60W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are seen north of 21N between the Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic from 11N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas exist. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle NE and monsoonal westerly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are noted from 12N to 21N between the central Africa coast and 30W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in moderate to large southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will move across the Bahamas early this week. Expect moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 24N following the trough through Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse off Hispaniola during the late afternoons and early evenings through Tue. $$ Forecaster Chan