000 AXNT20 KNHC 140530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Aug 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 16N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 11N to 15N. Isolated moderate is to the east of the tropical wave, and within 360 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 14N northward. This wave is moving through an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. The upper level wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea between 63W and Central America. A tropical wave is along 90W/91W, from 22N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. This tropical wave is moving through the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. An inland Mexico northwest-to-southeast oriented surface trough is reaching the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: numerous strong is on the southern side of the surface trough, extending into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Isolated moderate is from 22N southward from 90W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 15N17W, to 11N30W, and 09N43W. The ITCZ continues from 09N43W, to 08N48W 09N53W, and 08N58W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is: from 11N to 12N between 21W and 23W, and from 08N to 10N between 25W and 31W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 04N to 17N from the 35W/36W tropical wave eastward; and within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 38W and 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details about the 90W/91W tropical wave. A surface trough passes through southern Georgia, through northern Florida, to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Broad 500 mb and 700 mb cyclonic wind flow covers the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N to 28N from 95W eastward. The sea heights are reaching: 3 feet from the middle Texas Gulf coast southward, covering the rest of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico; 2 feet in the SE corner of the area; 1 foot in the north central and NE sections of the area. Fresh NE-to-E winds are from 22N southward between 92W and 95W. Moderate SE winds are in the rest of the Gulf from 90W westward. Gentle winds are in the eastern half of the area. A trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan. Elsewhere, a ridge over the northern Gulf will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details about the 68W tropical wave. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation, cover the Caribbean Sea between 63W and Central America. A surface trough is in the Windward Passage, from the SE Bahamas. The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in Colombia, southwestward, beyond SW Panama, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. Strong NE winds have been from Jamaica and Hispaniola southward to 11N between 70W and 79W. Fresh NE winds have been elsewhere from 18N southward between 70W and 80W. Moderate easterly winds have been from 17N northward from the Windward Passage westward. Fresh NE winds are between 60W and 70W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from Hispaniola and Jamaica southward between Puerto Rico and 81W. The comparatively highest sea heights of 8 feet are along 73W/74W in the coastal waters/offshore waters of Colombia. The sea heights: range from 4 feet to 5 feet elsewhere from 70W eastward; reach 5 feet from 20N northward from 80W westward; reaching 3 feet off the coast of SW Cuba; 3 feet for the coastal waters of central Honduras; 2 feet for the eastern coastal waters of Honduras: 4 feet off the coast of SE Nicaragua. Ridging over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong winds across mainly the south-central Caribbean through mid week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough curves along 31N56W, to 30N64W to 25N70W, to the SE Bahamas near 22N73W, to the Windward Passage. Precipitation: isolated moderate is to the northwest and north of the surface trough. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the 31N56W of the surface trough eastward. Strong NE winds are within 180 nm to 210 nm on either side of the line 31N16W 28N30W 25N41W 18N55W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere within 300 nm to 420 nm on either side of the line 31N14W 27N30W 24N41W 18N56W 16N60W. Moderate and fresh southerly winds are from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward from 42W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Sea heights that range from 7 feet to 10 feet are from 50W eastward, with smaller areas of ranges from 4 feet to 6 feet. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet between 50W and 70W. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 70W westward. The subtropical ridge extending along 29N will lift northward ahead of a surface trough moving westward toward the Bahamas through the early part of the week. Expect moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 24N following the trough through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off Hispaniola during the late afternoons and early evenings through Tue. $$ mt/al