000 AXNT20 KNHC 122322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Aug 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis near 30W from west of the Cabo Verde Islands at 16N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 05N to 10N between 29W and 34W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 60W from 20N southward, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the Lesser Antilles. A western Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed with axis near 83W from 20N southward, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 250 nm on either side of the wave axis affecting western Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N37W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 08N47W. Besides the convection related to the tropical wave mentioned in the above section, scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 06N to 18N and E of 28W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extending across the Straits of Florida is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the SE Gulf waters including the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge prevails anchored by a 1017 mb centered near 27N89W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are present over the eastern and north-central Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan. Elsewhere, the ridge over the northern Gulf will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low in the eastern basin near 16N69W is producing scattered showers across the eastern half of the basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. The Atlantic Ridge to the north near 29N continues to sustain a trade-wind regime across much of the basin, except near Costa Rica and Panama. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft exist across the central basin. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft in moderate easterly swell are present near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean will persist across much of the central and southwest Caribbean through tonight as high pressure builds north of the area. Except for fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras Sun night, these winds and seas will diminish slightly Sun week over most of the basin as a trough moving into the Bahamas weakens the high pressure. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again over the south-central Caribbean into mid week as high pressure builds again over the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms at the Great Bahama Bank, and the central and northwest Bahamas. An upper-level trough runs northward from near the Windward Passage to south of Bermuda. Interaction with convergent southerly winds is causing scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 67W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the east, another surface trough extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N44W to northeast of Puerto Rico near 22N64W. This feature is generating scattered moderate convection from 21N to 28N between 60W and 68W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb high near 34N45W across 28N68W to near central Bahamas. This ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate northerly swell north of 27N between 45W and the Georgia-Florida coast. For the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NNE to NE trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft dominate north of 21N between the Africa coast and 45W, including the Canary Islands. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident from 10N to 20N between 32W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle monsoonal winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted from 10N to 21N between the central Africa coast and 32W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge extends will lift northward today ahead of a surface trough moving westward toward the Bahamas through early next week. Expect moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 24N following the trough Sun to Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off Hispaniola during the late afternoons and early evenings through Tue. $$ ERA