986 AXNT20 KNHC 101144 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Aug 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NE Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between the 1024 mb subtropical ridge located north of the Madeira Islands and lower pressures in NW Africa support strong to gale-force northerly winds off the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara, including the Canary Islands. Meteo-France has a gale warning in effect until 11/1200 UTC for the Canarias region with the strongest winds occurring in the water passages between the Canary Islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W, south of 17N, and is moving slowly westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 11N and east of 27W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W/37W, south of 17N, and is moving slowly westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N and between 28W and 44W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 65W, south of 20N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 16N to 18N and between 65W and 67W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W, south of 21N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N16W and continues westward to 09N45W. The ITCZ extends from 09N45W to 08N50W to 11N61W. Convection is described in the tropical waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds west of 87W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off southern Texas and NE Tamaulipas. Locally moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms are moving off the SW Florida coast, otherwise no significant convection is noted. For the forecast, surface ridging across the Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse through the weekend over the western Gulf with slight to moderate seas. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the convection already described in the Tropical Waves section, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the nearshore waters of southern Cuba and NW Colombia. A dry airmass is found in the rest of the Caribbean Sea, suppressing the development of convection. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present in the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean as a tropical wave moves across the area today through Fri. Light to gentle winds can be expected for the western basin. On Fri night through Mon night, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas will pulse across the south central Caribbean in the evening hours, while moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the GALE WARNING in the NE Atlantic. A surface trough located north of Hispaniola and divergence aloft sustain a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially south of 28N and between 66W and 73W. Farther east, scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N and between 41W and 53W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are evident south of 25N and west of 55W, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated near 28N through the weekend. The northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the southeastern waters today and Fri. This will increase winds fresh to locally strong with moderate seas across the region, including the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh winds will resume on Sat. Winds will pulse fresh to locally strong north of Hispaniola during the evenings Sat through Mon. $$ Lewitsky