000 AXNT20 KNHC 091712 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Aug 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W, south of 17N, and is stationary. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N and east of 20W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of 17N, and is stationary. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the tropical wave. A tropical wave approaching Barbados and the Lesser Antilles has its axis along 59W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Venezuela north to 14N between 60W and 64W. Scatterometer detected fresh trades at the surface near the wave axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the Windward Passage near the northern terminus of the wave axis. A tropical wave previously in the W Caribbean has moved inland over Central America. For further information on this tropical wave, please see the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific Ocean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues westward to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42W to 14N56W. Convection is described in the tropical waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, weak riding extends across the Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. S winds are moderate near the coast of Texas. For the forecast, surface ridging across the basin will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the western Gulf will prevail through tonight, then pulse through the weekend. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A diffuse pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia results in gentle to locally moderate trades across the Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas. Patches of moisture in the low level trades may result in some showers and tstorms today. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail over the Caribbean through tonight, with fresh winds in the south- central basin. A tropical wave will move into the eastern and central Caribbean Thu through Sat, bringing fresh to strong winds and moderate seas. By Sun, fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail through most of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is enhancing an area of scattered moderate convection north of Hispaniola, from 20N to 23N between 67W and 73W, including the Turks and Caicos. 1020 mb high pressures are centered near 26N55W and 30N21W. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin around the high pressure centers. Seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated along 25N through much of the week. Moderate to fresh winds can be expected through tonight S of 25N and E of 78W. Later in the week, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the southeastern waters. This will increase winds fresh to strong with moderate seas across the region Thu through Sat, including the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh winds will resume on Sun. $$ Mahoney