000 AXNT20 KNHC 090433 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Aug 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N and east of 23W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are seen near the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 10N to 17N and between 51W and 57W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the strong convection is producing fresh to strong easterly winds. Seas in the area described are 4-6 ft. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 69W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are observed near the northern portion of the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 85W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Most of the convection associated with this wave is occurring in the eastern Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues westward to 11N33W. The ITCZ extends from 10N35W to 12N55W. No significant convection is noted near the monsoon trough / ITCZ aside from the convection already described in the Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... A line of showers and thunderstorms that formed over the Yucatan peninsula is pushing westward over the eastern Bay of Campeche. This activity is expected to quickly diminish over the next few hours. Similar convection is seen in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a 1017 mb high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico maintain fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over Mexico support moderate to locally fresh E-SE in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. The wave heights in the region described are 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next several days. Moderate return flow across the western Gulf will become moderate to fresh by Wed night, continuing through most of the week. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the nearshore waters of southern Cuba and western Hispaniola. Similar convection is evident in the SW Caribbean Sea, mainly within 90 nm of northern Panama. The remainder of the basin is under fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America support moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Locally moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh trade winds will prevail over the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate trades are expected in the eastern and western basin. Winds across the Caribbean will diminish slightly tonight through Wed night. A tropical wave will move into the eastern and central Caribbean Thu into Fri, bringing fresh to strong winds and moderate seas to the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen off NE Florida due to divergence aloft. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive 1023 mb subtropical ridge positioned near 27N53W allowing for fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the Caribbean region sustain moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 50W. The seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted north of 27N and west of 35W, along with seas of 4-8 ft. The highest seas are present near 31N45W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated along 28N through much of the week. Fresh E trade winds S of 25N and E of 78W will diminish to mostly moderate speeds tonight through Wed. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will pulse moderate to fresh through Thu. Later in the week, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the southeastern waters. This will increase winds fresh to strong across the region Thu through Sat, including the Bahamas. $$ DELGADO