000 AXNT20 KNHC 081632 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Aug 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located near 29W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is depicted west of the wave from 06N to 08N and between 29W and 33W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is located near 53W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from 07N to 15N and between 50W and 56W. A eastern Carribbean tropical wave is located in between the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, with its axis near 63W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 14N to 22N between 59W and 65W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is located near 81W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is depicted near the eastern Pacific monsoon trough and the wave axis, S of 11N between 76W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Banjul near 14N16W to 10N37W. The ITCZ continues from 10N38W to 12N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted mostly along the ITCZ from 07N to 15N between 36W and 47W. Scattered moderate convection is moving off the coast of Africa from 06N to 11N and E of 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure system located near 29N86W. A surface trough extends in the central Bay of Campeche. No significant convection is associated with the trough. A weak pressure gradient promotes gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are depicted west of 90W and 1 to 2 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the area will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next several days. Moderate return flow across the western Gulf will become moderate to fresh by Wed, continuing through most of the week. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the nearshore waters south of eastern Cuba in association to an upper level trough. For convection in the eastern Carribbean, please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above. Elsewhere, a generally dry airmass suppresses the development of deep convection. The pressure gradient between the ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in northern South America support fresh easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, fresh trade winds will prevail over the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh trades are expected over the eastern basin, with gentle to moderate trades are expected in the western basin. Winds across the Caribbean will diminish slightly tonight into Wed night. A tropical wave will move into the eastern and central Caribbean Thu into Fri, bringing fresh to strong winds and moderate seas to the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The combination of a 1023 mb subtropical ridge positioned near 27N45W and a dry air mass associated with Sahara Dust are suppressing convection development north of 15N. However, an upper level trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms north of Dominican Republic between 65W and 71W. For information about convection in the tropical Atlantic, please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES and MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ sections above. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the tropics are found south of 25N and west of 39W. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated along 26N through much of the week. Fresh E trade winds S of 25N and E of 75W will diminish to mostly moderate speeds tonight through Wed night. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will pulse moderate to fresh through Thu. Later in the week, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the southeastern waters. This will increase winds fresh to strong across the region Thu through Sat, including the Bahamas. $$ KRV