000 AXNT20 KNHC 072159 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Aug 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean along 25W/26W, from 17N southward near the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted well ahead of the tropical wave from 08N to 15N between 30W and 34W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic Ocean along 44W, from 17N southward, moving W around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near this tropical wave. A tropical wave is in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean waters along 57W/58W, from 21N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 58W and 63W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea along 73W/74W, from 20N near the Windward Passage southward to across SW Haiti and northern Colombia, moving W around 15 kt. No significant convection over water is noted near the tropical wave. A tropical wave is along 85W/86W from 05N to across the Gulf of Papagayo and western Nicaragua, and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the NW Caribbean near the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W to 11N37W. The ITCZ extends from 11N37W to 11N43W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 09N45W to 15N57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 47W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure is noted in the eastern Gulf near 26N87W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-2 ft seas are noted across the eastern half of the Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas across the western half of the Gulf. Mainly fair weather is present with some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the N-central and NE Gulf. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the area will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next several days. Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will become moderate to fresh by early Wed. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on three tropical waves potentially impacting the basin. Moderate to fresh trades are evident in the central Caribbean, with moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to locally moderate trades in the western Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the central Caribbean, locally to 9 ft offshore northern Colombia. Seas are 3-5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Tue, with fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh trades are expected over the eastern basin, with gentle to moderate trades are expected in the western basin. Winds across the Caribbean will diminish slightly Tue night into early Wed, with gentle to moderate winds expected for the rest of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1024 mb high pressure centered near 29N51W extends a ridge westward to central Florida. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is under the influence of the ridge, locally fresh from 19N to 22N. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft in long period SE swell N of 27N. Seas are 6-8 ft in mixed easterly swell from 15N-27N and W of 50W, enhanced by the locally fresh trades, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated along 28N through much of the week. Fresh E trade winds S of 25N and E of 75W will diminish to mostly moderate speeds Wed. Seas generated by these winds will gradually subside through Wed. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong speeds this evening. Starting Tue, these winds will be mostly at gentle to moderate speeds through early Thu, then increase slightly to fresh speeds through Sat night as the northern portion of a tropical wave moves across the southeastern forecast waters late in the week, and through the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. There is a possibility that the fresh winds may increase to strong speeds at that time with the passage of the tropical wave. $$ Lewitsky