000 AXNT20 KNHC 061749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Aug 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean is along 32W, from 16N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 12N to 14N between 36W and 39W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 07N to 11N between 34W and 37W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N to 20N between 46W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 21N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N southward between 60W and 72W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N to 23N between 74W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N31W and 10N42W. The ITCZ continues from 10N42W, to 10N50W and 09N58W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 12N to 14N between 36W and 39W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is: within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 18W and 25W, and from 07N to 11N between 34W and 37W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from the monsoon trough southward from 46W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, toward the middle Texas Gulf coast. A surface trough is along 93W/94W, from 21N southward, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible within 135 nm on either side of the trough. An upper level inverted trough is in the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 90W eastward, and from 23N northward from 90W westward. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot in the eastern half of the Gulf. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet from from the coastal waters of Louisiana into the central sections of the Gulf, and in the coastal waters of Mexico along 20N. The sea heights are 3 feet elsewhere. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow covers the area. Weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will continue through early this week, becoming moderate to fresh by mid-week. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, and will produce moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information about the 65W tropical wave, and the 76W/77W tropical wave. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet from Hispaniola and Jamaica southward between 67W and 81W. The 9 foot sea heights are in the coastal waters of Colombia between 75W and 76W. The sea heights are ranging from 2 feet to 3 feet in the Atlantic Ocean just to the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet in the Venezuela coastal waters, and off the SE coast of Nicaragua. The sea heights are 5 feet elsewhere from 70W eastward. The sea heights are 2 feet from 15N northward from 80W westward. Near gale-force NE winds are from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Strong NE winds are elsewhere from 17N southward between 70W and 78W. Fresh NE to E winds are in the remainder of the area that is between 67W and 80W. the 70W tropical wave and 82W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the area. An upper level inverted trough is in the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. The monsoon trough extends from the Peninsula de la Guajira of Colombia beyond the central sections of Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. recipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward from 76W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 06/1200 UTC, are: 2.62 in Bermuda, 0.64 in Guadeloupe, and 0.47 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. Fresh trades will prevail over the central Caribbean through Mon night, with fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are expected over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are expected in the western Caribbean. Winds across the basin should diminish slightly by mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the northwest of the line that passes through 31N58W to 24N74W in the Bahamas. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that a trough is moving through the SE U.S.A. A stationary front passes trough 32N80W. The trough is about 460 nm to the NW of the 31N58W-to-24N74W line. A 1022 mb low pressure center is near 33N30W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 30N northward between 25W and 40W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward from 35W westward. A surface ridge passes through a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 31N52W, to 29N70W, through Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, toward the middle Texas Gulf coast. Strong NE winds are from 18N to 23N between 55W and 61W. Fresh NE winds are from 500 nm to 650 nm to the south of the line 31N21W 23N31W 25N45W 25N60W. Fresh and moderate southerly winds are from the monsoon trough southward from 40W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly moderate anticyclonic wind flow is from 70W westward. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 8 feet from 15N to 25N between 54W and 62W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, with some isolated 7 foot heights, elsewhere from 70W eastward he sea heights are 4 feet or less from 70W westward. The subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated along 28N through much of the week. Expect fresh ESE trade winds to continue through early Mon S of 25N and E of 75W. These winds will bring increased trade wind swell to the area. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong speeds during the afternoons and evenings through Mon. $$ mt