000
AXNT20 KNHC 042308
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Aug 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 33W from 05N to 
20N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are from 07N to 
14N between 30W and 34W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W from 07N to 19N, 
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 10N between 45W and 51W. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W from 20N 
southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted 
near Puerto Rico at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 09N51W. The ITCZ continues from 09N51W 
to 12N58W. Aside from the convection described above, scattered
showers are noted from 03N-13N between 35W-44W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

1016 mb high pressure is near 27N90W in the central Gulf. Light 
to gentle flow and 1-3 ft seas prevail. Scattered moderate
convection is developing over the Yucatan Peninsula and moving
west across the Bay of Campeche. This activity is enhancing winds
and seas in the area.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will support gentle to 
moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return flow across
the far western Gulf will continue through the upcoming weekend. 
A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, 
and will produce moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the 
Yucatan Peninsula. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relaxed pressure gradient across the Caribbean provides light to
gentle trades across the basin, increasing to moderate speeds in
the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are
4-7 ft in the central and southwest Caribbean, with locally 8 ft
seas off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern and
northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central
Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central
and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in 
the Gulf of Honduras through this evening, with gentle to 
moderate trades elsewhere in the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs southwestward from 31N62W to 27N68W. 
Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm on either side of the
trough. North of 20N and west of 60W, SE winds are light to 
gentle. North of 20N and east of 60W, NE to E winds are gentle to 
moderate, increasing to fresh to strong speeds near the coast of 
Africa. South of 20N, NE to E winds are moderate to fresh. 6-8 ft 
seas in NNE swell are in the central Atlantic from 12N to 27N east
of 55W. 4-6 ft seas are elsewhere in open waters.
 
For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough over the W Atlantic 
will drift tonight while weakening. SW winds will briefly 
increase to moderate to locally fresh off NE Florida tonight. 
Ridging will dominate the basin this weekend into early next week.
Expect trade winds to increase to fresh speeds over the weekend S
of 25N and E of 75W. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will 
pulse to locally strong speeds during the afternoons and evenings 
Sat through Mon.

$$
ERA