000 AXNT20 KNHC 032312 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Aug 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The latest forecast from the METEO-FRANCE shows that gale-force winds are in the AGADIR marine zone through 04/0000 UTC. The surface pressure gradient that is between the Azores high pressure center and the comparatively lower NW Africa surface pressures will lead to the gale-force northerly winds. It is likely that the sea heights may range from 10 feet to 11 feet in the gale-force wind area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast is issued by METEO-FRANCE at the website https://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 24W and 28W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 20N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 39W and 46W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W from 19N southward, mostly over the western Gulf of Honduras, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Gulf of Honduras and along the Yucatan Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W to 12N32W to 11N46W. The ITCZ continues from 11N46W to 10N53W. Outside of the convection noted in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 44W and 59W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging extends across the area. Strong thunderstorms are noted over the western Yucatan approaching the far eastern Bay of Campeche waters. Thunderstorms over western Florida are also impacting adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted across most of the basin. Seas are to 2 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will continue through the upcoming weekend. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, and will produce moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Thunderstorms are noted across the Greater Antilles and impacting adjacent waters. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted across the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are occurring over the south-central Caribbean with seas 4 to 6 ft. Otherwise, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail across the rest of the basin with seas ranging 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Honduras during the late afternoons and evenings through Fri night. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere in the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in Agadir, off the NW African coast. A trough extends across the SW N Atlantic to the Bahamas, from 31N65W to 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and east of the trough from 24N to 31N between 55W and 74W. Gentle to locally moderate NE winds prevail N of the trough with gentle winds south and east of the trough. In the central and eastern Atlantic, surface ridging extends across the area anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure near 37N38W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail N of the ITCZ to 31N and from the African coast to 55W. Seas range 6 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail S of the ITCZ with seas to 5 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough extending from 31N65W to the central Bahamas will drift slowly SE, then retreat by the end of the week. SW winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh off NE Florida Fri night into early Sat. Ridging will dominate the basin this weekend into early next week. Expect trade winds to increase to fresh speeds over the weekend S of 25N and E of 75W. $$ AReinhart