000 AXNT20 KNHC 022319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Aug 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 14W and 21W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 20N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 32W and 39W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted along this wave at this time. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 19N southward to Panama, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted W of the wave from 10N to 20N between 79W and 85W. A tropical wave is moving through the Bay of Campeche through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The wave is along 95W from 21N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southern Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N44W. The ITCZ extends from 11N44W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. Outside of the convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 53W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1019 mb high near 27N89W. The most significant convection is associated with a tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail across most of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted off the NW coast of the Yucatan. Seas are to 2 ft across the Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, weak surface ridging prevails across the northern Gulf. The ridge will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return flow will develop across the W Gulf tonight through the upcoming weekend as high pressure shifts into the eastern Gulf. A thermal trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula, locally strong tonight and Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered thunderstorms are impacting the Greater Antilles and their adjacent waters. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted in the south- central Caribbean. Seas range 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras and off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds prevail through most of the basin. Seas range 2 to 4 ft across the rest of the Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail in the western Caribbean, except pusling to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is noted E of the Bahamas to Bermuda from 22N to 31N between 65W and 78W. Otherwise, moderate NE winds are noted off the Florida coast N of 27N and W of 70W. S of 27N, light to gentle winds are noted. Seas range 2 to 4 ft in this area. A 1015 mb low pressure is located in the central Atlantic near 30N59W. This low has scattered moderate convection noted within 60 nm of the center. Fresh winds are noted E of the low with seas to 8 ft. Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly less favorable for tropical cyclone formation, and the low is expected to move northward and merge with a frontal system over the north-central Atlantic in the next day or two. This low pressure has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Otherwise, surface ridging extends across the the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1029 mb high near 36N38W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough with strong winds off the African coast. Seas range 6 to 9 ft. South of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and seas to 6 ft are noted. For the forecast W of 55W, a weak frontal trough in the central offshore waters will drift SE through Thu, then retreat by the end of the week. Ridging will dominate the basin this weekend into early next week. Expect trade winds to increase to fresh speeds over the weekend S of 25N and E of 75W. $$ AReinhart