000 AXNT20 KNHC 021039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Aug 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been added to the analysis just off the coast of Africa along 18W from 05N to 15N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07.5N to 12N between 16W and 22.5W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 08N to 23N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 12N between 28W and 35W. The portion of the wave north of 12N is embedded within very dry Saharan dust. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 06N to 22N, moving west at 15 kt. Dry Saharan dust north of 10N at low to mid levels is hindering any significant convection near this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77/78W from just east of Jamaica southward to near the Panama-Colombia border. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted south of 11N between 76W and 80W, where the wave intersects the east Pacific monsoon trough. Small areas of showers and tstorms are also seen off southwestern Jamaica and in the Windward Passage. A tropical wave along 93W extends from the Pacific Ocean northward across southern Mexico to 21N in the Bay of Campeche. The tropical wave is moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen south of 22N and west of 92W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near 19N16W to 14N23.5W to 12N37W to 09N48W. Isolated moderate convection is noted along and within 270 nm S of the monsoon trough between 35W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from Havana, Cuba to 1017 mb high pressure near 28N87W to New Orleans, LA. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail over the eastern Gulf due to the ridge, with seas less than 2 ft. Moderate SE winds are to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula with seas 2 to 3 ft. Gentle winds and 1-2 ft seas prevail elsewhere. In addition to the showers and tstorms over the Bay of Campeche mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, an upper-level low near the Yucatan Channel is inducing isolated showers and tstorms over the SE Gulf from 23.5N to 26.5N, east of 87W. Also, a weak surface trough over the western Gulf is inducing isolated showers and tstorms from 22.5N to 26N between 94W and 95.5W. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return flow will develop across the W Gulf tonight through Fri night as high pressure shifts into the eastern Gulf. A thermal trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent easterly winds and troughing in the low to mid levels are inducing numerous moderate scattered strong convection within 180 nm of the coast of Nicaragua, from 11N to 16N between 80.5W and 84.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted farther to the NW, over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly clear conditions prevail over the eastern half of the Caribbean in subsidence. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the central Caribbean, likely locally strong off the coast of NW Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail in the western Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 mb low pressure, Invest AL96, is well east-southeast of Bermuda near 28N58W, moving NW. A surface trough reaches northeastward from 26N62W through AL96 to 30N56W. Scattered moderate convection and strong SE winds continue within 240 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. Seas in the area are 8 to 11 ft. This system has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. An east-west oriented stationary front is draped along 31N west of 72W. A surface trough extends from Miami, FL northeastward to 30N74W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted north of 25N between 65W and 79W. A surface trough extends along 57/58W from 13N to 22N. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted within 60 nm of the trough. A surface ridge extends across the W Atlantic from near 23N60W to 25N66W to the Florida Keys. Gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail across most of the area west of 60W. Other than the winds and seas near AL96, a large dome of 1029 mb Azores High pressure near 36N37W is supporting moderate trades and seas of 5 to 6 ft north of 16N between 39W and 52W. Fresh to strong NNE trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 35W. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with seas of 5 to 6 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, strong winds will continue in the eastern semicircle of AL96 until it moves north of the area late this afternoon. A weak frontal trough will sink S into the waters offshore of NE Florida this morning and move SE and reach from near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas by Thu. Ridging will dominate the basin by the end of the week into the weekend. Expect trade winds to increase to fresh speeds over the weekend south of 25N and east of 75W. $$ Hagen