018 AXNT20 KNHC 020602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Aug 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 23N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 20N to 25N between 32W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 19N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Very dry air at low to mid levels is hindering any significant convection near this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from just east of Jamaica southward to near the Panama-Colombia border. It is moving west around 15 kt. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring near the Panama-Colombia border, and adjacent Caribbean waters. Isolated thunderstorms are found over Haiti and south of the Windward Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast just north of Nouakchott, then extends southwestward through 13N30W to 09N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 06N to 11N between 15W and 23W. An ITCZ continues from 09N41W to 06N47W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present near and up to 330 nm south of the monsoon trough. Similar conditions are seen up to 90 nm north and 130 nm south of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough reaches southward from a 1015 mb low in southwestern Georgia to near Tampa, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident over northwestern Florida and adjacent waters. The northern tip a tropical wave over the southeastern Mexico and East Pacific is triggering similar weather in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge extending westward from a 1018 mb high over the northeastern Gulf to near the Texas-Mexico border is dominating much of the region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are exist across the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will stay in place over the next few days, supporting gentle to moderate winds over most of the Gulf. A thermal trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Another high pressure currently over southern Texas/Louisiana will shift southeastward into the eastern Gulf tonight and Wed, which allows for moderate southerly flow to develop across the western Gulf Wed night through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent easterly winds are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near and just east of the Costa Rica and Nicaragua coast. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. A easterly trade-wind pattern persists across much of the basin, except a the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough just north of Panama and near northwestern Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the south-central basin, north of northeastern Colombia and northwestern Venezuela. Moderate to fresh E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are evident at the north-central basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are seen north of Panama and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin, including the Windward Passage and Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the south-central basin while moderate to fresh trades exist elsewhere in the central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail in the western Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 mb low pressure, Invest AL96 is well southeast of Bermuda near 27N57W. A surface trough reaches northeastward from 24N61W through AL96 to 30N56W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near and east of these features from 24N to 30N between 51W and 57W. Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are present in this general area. There is a low chance for tropical development on this system for the next 48 hours. Read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more information. A surface trough extends southwestward from 31N72W to southern Florida. Convergent southerly winds southeast of this feature are producing scattered moderate convection from 25N to 31N between 68W and 75W. Another surface trough near 15N57W is causing similar convection east of the Lesser Antilles from 12N to 23N between 55W and 59W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Other than the winds and seas near AL96, a large dome of 1030 mb Azores High near 35N38W is supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of 20N between 35W and 60W. Farther west, light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are noted north of 20N between 60W and the Georgia/Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft exist north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen north of 12N between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with seas of 5 to 6 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, AL96 is expected to merge with a frontal system over the north-central Atlantic in about two to three days. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the eastern semicircle of this low until it moves north of the area Wed afternoon. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh trades north of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage early this evening will diminish later tonight. A weak frontal trough will sink southeastward into the waters offshore of northeastern Florida tonight and then reach from near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas by Thu. Ridging will dominate the basin by the end of the week into the weekend. $$ Forecaster Chan