000 AXNT20 KNHC 012311 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Aug 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 26.6N 56.4W or about 800 nm northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 24N to 29N between 3 and 57W. Strong to near-gale force winds accompany the low, mainly in the E semicircle, with seas of 9 to 11 ft. Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for tropical cyclone formation, and the low is expected to merge with a frontal system over the north central Atlantic in about two to three days. Formation chance is low through the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 26W from 07N to 21N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave due to the presence of dry Saharan dust. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 47W from 03N to 19N, moving west at 20-25 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 74W from Haiti to Colombia, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 12N32W to 07N50W. The ITCZ extends from 07N50W to near the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 06N to 12N between 35W and 43W and north of the ITCZ from 08N to 13N between 51W and 57W. A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean, generating scattered moderate and isolated strong convection S of 14N and W of 80W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Bay of Campeche to the central Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 20N to 25N between 85W and 95W. Similar convection is observed along the west coast of Florida. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient persists across the region. Winds are light to gentle across the basin with 1-2 ft seas. For the forecast, weak surface ridging prevails across the northern Gulf. The ridge will stay in place over the next few days, supporting gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. A thermal trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh winds by the middle to latter part of the week. High pressure will shift SE into the east Gulf tonight and Wed and allow for moderate return flow to develop across the W Gulf Wed night through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for information on convection in the Caribbean Sea. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is partially disrupted by Invest AL96. Moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly trade winds are noted in the majority of the basin with 4-6 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable in the NW Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds and 2-3 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail in the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Invest AL96 well NE of the Leeward Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone development. A surface trough and upper level divergence is supporting scattered moderate convection north of 24N and west of 66W. Otherwise subtropical high pressure prevails across the basin. A ridge extends from the central Atlantic to the Florida Straits. North of the ridge, winds are moderate from the SW. South of the ridge, winds are moderate from the SE. Winds are gentle within the ridge axis. Seas are 3-5 ft across the western Atlantic. In the central Atlantic, Invest AL96 is supporting seas to 11 ft with 8 ft or greater seas from 25N to 29N between 53W and 57W. Otherwise, easterly winds are moderate to locally fresh with 5-7 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over Africa is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh trades will pulse this early evening N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A weak frontal trough will sink S into the waters offshore of NE Florida tonight and move SE and reach from near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas by Thu. Ridging will dominate the basin by the end of the week into the weekend. $$ AReinhart