000 AXNT20 KNHC 011052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Aug 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 24.5N54.5W or about 610 nm northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 10 to 15 kt. Disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the center in the northeast quadrant and 310 nm southeast quadrant. Strong to near-gale force winds accompany the low, mainly in the E semicircle, with seas 9 to 12 ft. Environmental conditions still could support tropical cyclone formation during the next few days while the system moves northwestward and then northward over the central subtropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is located along 22W from 08N to 22N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave due to the presence of dry Saharan dust. A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is located along 40/41W from 04N to 21N, moving W at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 34W and 41W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis is located along 70W from the Dominican Republic to western Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is seen in association with this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave axis extends along 87W from Tulum, Mexico southward through western Honduras and into the east Pacific, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted over the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W through the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N24W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to 06N54W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves section, scattered showers are observed from 07N to 10N between 44W and 51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 210 nm of the coast of Africa from 05N to 11N between 10W and 17.5W. A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean, generating scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 10N to 12.5N between 76.5W and the coasts of southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends over the north-central Gulf from Apalachicola, FL to 28N92W. The surface trough is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 27.5N to 29N between 90W and 93W. An upper-level low centered over western Cuba is inducing scattered tstorms over the SE Gulf from 22.5N to 25N between 84W and 90W. The weather pattern is quite benign across the basin as a weak ridge dominates the sensible weather. Winds are gentle with 1 to 2 ft seas. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will stay in place over the next few days, supporting gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. A thermal trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh winds by the middle to latter part of the week. High pressure will shift SE into the east Gulf today and Wed and allow for moderate return flow to develop across the W Gulf Wed night through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough sections above for information on the tropical waves moving across the Caribbean and convection in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. No additional major areas of showers or thunderstorms are seen, other than the activity described in those two sections, above. Fresh easterly trade winds prevail in the central and west-central Caribbean with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are moderate in the eastern Caribbean with 3 to 5 ft seas. Winds are gentle in the NW Caribbean with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, a 1014 mb low pressure near 24.5N54.5W is disrupting Atlantic ridging N of the area. This will support fresh to locally strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the central Caribbean through most of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Invest AL96 well NE of the Leeward Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone development. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 27N between 64W and 80W in association with upper-level divergence due to an upper-level trough in the area. Isolated thunderstorms prevail farther south across the northwest Bahamas, due to a surface trough that extends from 30N76W to Key West, FL. A surface ridge extends from 31N59W to 26N70W to south-central Florida. West of 60W, gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 23N with seas 2 to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh trades with seas up to 5 ft are occurring north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. A 1029 mb subtropical high pressure centered near 35N36W extends surface ridging across the subtropical eastern Atlantic. South of the ridge, fresh trades and 5-8 ft seas prevail from 16N to 29N between 20W and 50W. The gradient between the Azores high and lower pressure over Africa is supporting fresh to near gale force N to NE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas from the coast of Morocco through the Canary Islands. For the forecast, 1014 mb low pressure near 24.5N54.5W is moving northwestward. Environmental conditions could still support tropical cyclone formation during the next couple days while the system moves northwestward and then northward around 10 kt over the central subtropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of formation over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue S of 23N and W of 65W through early today before diminishing. Fresh trades will pulse this afternoon and early evening N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A weak frontal trough will sink S into the waters offshore of NE Florida tonight and move SE and reach from near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas by Thu. Fresh to near-gale force N to NE winds will continue between the coast of Morocco and the Canary Islands through Thu night. $$ Hagen