000 AXNT20 KNHC 282203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jul 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is located near 42W from 03N to 19N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to 15N between 36W and 46W. This tropical wave has a LOW (20%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours. A Caribbean tropical wave is located near 66W from 03N to 19N moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A robust tropical wave in the western Caribbean is located along 84W from the Cayman Islands across Central America and into the far eastern Pacific, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 81W and 87W, including the Gulf of Honduras. This tropical wave has a LOW (10%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate convection has developed along the trough from 06N to 11N E of 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough in the SW Gulf of Mexico is inducing scattered moderate convection from 19N to 25W, W of 93W. Another surface trough previously over the far eastern Gulf has crossed into the Florida Peninsula and associated convection is now inland. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, weak ridging prevails with high pressure centered in coastal Mississippi. Easterly winds are gentle to moderate, and seas are 1-3 ft. Some locally fresh winds have developed just offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough is moving W toward the waters. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will remain the dominant feature across the basin through early next week. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. A weak surface trough across Florida will drift W across the eastern Gulf this afternoon through late Sat and become the focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and low pressure over Colombia currently supports fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades in the NW and eastern basin. Seas are 6-9 ft in this region. Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will induce pulsing fresh to strong trades across the entire central Caribbean through Sun, then become confined to the south central Caribbean through early next week. A strong tropical wave entering Central America this afternoon will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean through Sun. Another strong tropical wave is expected to move across the Tropical Atlantic and reach 55W by late Sun. Low pressure is expected to form along the wave and move NW into the open Atlantic through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1017 mb low pressure centered just north of Jacksonville, Florida, is producing some scattered moderate convection over the far NW discussion waters. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of 1026 mb subtropical high centered E of Bermuda. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin from 20N to 31N. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 20N. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin. An area of strong NE winds is from 18N to 21N east of 20W near the coast of Mauritania, with seas to 8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the weekend. Active weather will continue within 120 nm on the Florida coast through Sat. Fresh trades will pulse each late afternoon through evening N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A strong tropical wave will move into the eastern Atlantic waters Sun through Mon. Surface low pressure is expected to develop along the wave by late Sun and move NW then N across the eastern offshore zones through Wed. $$ KONARIK