000 AXNT20 KNHC 271721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jul 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 19N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 27W and 36W. A western Atlantic tropical waves is near 53W from 18N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 15N between 45W and 53W. A strong central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from near Jamaica southward to near the Panama-Colombia border. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 13N to the southern coast of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic just north of the Mauritania-Senegal border, then extends west-southwestward through 12N35W to 11N52W. Scattered moderate convection are noted up to 180 nm north, and 80 nm south of the trough between 37W and 45W, and from 07N to 10N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 20W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean waters near Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough reaches eastward from an upper low near Tampico, Mexico to the central Gulf then turns southeastward to the Great Bahama Bank. These features are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms at the southwestern and southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Bay of Campeche. Isolated thunderstorms are present across the northern Gulf. Otherwise, a 1018 mb high at the northwestern Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the southern Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned high will remain the dominant feature across the basin into the weekend. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except moderate to locally strong at the eastern Bay of Campeche which will be enhanced by a thermal trough emerging off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trades are causing isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections above for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. A large dome of 1028 mb high near 33N43W is maintaining a trade- wind pattern across much of the basin. Enhanced by a robust tropical wave, moderate to fresh with locally strong E to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted over the central basin, including waters between Jamaica and Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident for the eastern basin. Gentle monsoonal winds with seas at 1 to 3 ft are noted near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere within the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will through the weekend. The robust tropical wave will continue to track westward, and spread fresh winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms into the west-central basin through early Sat, before moving into central America. Afterward, the aforementioned 1028 mb high should induce pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean into early next week. Another strong tropical wave is expected to move across the Tropical Atlantic and reach 55W late Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pronounced surface trough along with abundant tropical moisture is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from northwest Bahamas, eastern Florida and nearby Atlantic waters. An upper-low near 28N54W is generating isolated thunderstorms from 25N to 27N between 51W and 55W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft are found from northwest Bahamas northward to east of northern Florida, west of 75W. Otherwise. the large 1028 mb high near 33N43W is dominating north of 20N between 25W and the Georgia-Florida coast with gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate north of 19N between the Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident from 11N to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned 1028 mb high over the central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the weekend as the surface trough moves over Florida and the southeastern U.S. coasts over the next several days. Active weather will continue with and ahead of this trough. Fresh trades will pulse nightly north of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A strong tropical wave will move into the eastern Atlantic waters Sun and Mon. $$ Forecaster Chan