000 AXNT20 KNHC 261712 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jul 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 27W from 19N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 13N to 17N and between 24W and 29W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 18N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 41W and 46W. A pronounced eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from the Dominican Republic southward into northwestern Venezuela, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from just north of the ABC Islands northward to the southern coast of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 11N30W to north of French Guiana at 08N52W. Aside from convection related to the tropical waves mentioned above, scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 19N between the central Africa coast and 22W, and up to 200 nm along either side of the trough between 30W and 40W. There is no ITCZ based on the latest analysis. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Modest convergent easterly winds are coupling with moist divergent southerly flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the east-central and southeastern Gulf, including southern Florida and the Florida Keys. An upper-level low near 26N93W is generating isolated thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf. A surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms at the western Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1021 mb high over the Mississippi-Alabama border to south of Tampico, Mexico. This feature is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist for the southern Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the modest surface ridge will remain the dominant feature across the basin into late this week. This will support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except at the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper-level low near the western tip of Cuba is inducing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Cayman Islands and off the coast of Belize. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. The sub-tropical ridge near 26N70W maintains a trade-wind pattern over much of the basin. Enhanced by a robust tropical wave, moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are found over the central and eastern basin, and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen at the southwestern basin, except gentle monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas in easterly swell north of Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the robust tropical wave will continue to produce fresh to locally strong winds, showers and thunderstorms over the central and part of western basin through Thu. Some locally heavy rains are probable over portions of the adjacent land areas. Afterward, pressure gradient between the sub-tropical ridge and Colombian Low should maintain fresh to strong winds and rough seas at the central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough located between Bermuda and the Bahamas near 28N73W is joining forces with divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered moderate convection from the northwest and central Bahamas northeastward to southwest of Bermuda. The northern tip of a tropical wave at the Caribbean is causing isolated thunderstorms north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present north of 20N between 75W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Otherwise, a large dome of 1028 mb high near 34N47W is supporting gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas north of 21N between 20W and 75W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident north of 20N between the Africa coast and 20W. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate from 09N to 20N/21N between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderately southerly swell prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will gradually shift northward through the week as a surface trough near 28N73W, moves west-northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast over the next several days. Fresh trades will pulse nightly north of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere west of 55W, winds will be moderate or weaker over most of the area except moderate to fresh northeast of the Leeward Islands. $$ Forecaster Chan