503 AXNT20 KNHC 261007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jul 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 15N and between 24W-28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 12N and between 40W and 45W. A eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 69W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection and gusty winds are occurring across the eastern Caribbean Sea between 64W-70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 08N50W. Aside from the convection described in the section above, scattered moderate convection prevails along the boundary E of 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level low in the NW Caribbean, along with divergence aloft, sustain scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits. The rest of the Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions under a weak high pressure. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over southern Mexico support moderate to fresh easterly winds off NW Yucatan, especially south of 22N and east of 94W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will remain dominant the feature across the basin into late this week. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and the 1008 mb Colombian low pressure continues to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the eastern and north-central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean due to the strong tropical wave moving across the region. Moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Central America and northern South America will maintain pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through the weekend. The tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will continue moving W producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with some locally heavy rains over portions of the adjacent land areas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough located between Bermuda and the Bahamas and divergence aloft continue to support scattered moderate convection mainly west of 70W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive 1027 mb subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the basin, especially north of the deep tropics and east of 70W, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure dominating the area will gradually shift northward through the week as a surface trough, currently located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda moves west-northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast over the next several days. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker over most of the area with moderate to fresh speeds for waters NE of the Leeward Islands. $$ ERA