480 AXNT20 KNHC 252233 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jul 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 21W from 19N to 03N moving west at roughly 10 kt. Isolated to scattered showers are observed from 08N to 20N between 16W and 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 41W from 19N to 03N moving west at roughly 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 37W and 44W. A eastern Caribbean tropical wave, Invest AL95, extends along 65W from 20N to 05N, moving west at roughly 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection and gusty winds are occuring across the eastern Caribbean Sea, including the Lesser Antilees. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development along this wave during the next seven days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to 08N47W. The ITCZ continues from 08N47W to 13N60W. All significant convection is described in the tropical wave section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A very weak stationary front drapes across the north-central Gulf coast from near New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle. No convection is observed near this feature. A surface trough south of the front is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the north-central Gulf. Otherwise a surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean to the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are observed across the northern half of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted in the soutehrn half of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will remain dominant the feature across the basin into late this week. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is triggering isolated thunderstorms in the northwestern basin, including the Yucatan Channel. A relatively tight gradient between the Atlantic Ridge to the north and Colombian Low is supproting fresh easterly trade winds in the central and eastern basin, with strong NE winds in the SW Caribbean. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range near the strong winds in the SW Caribbean and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Conditions are more favorable in the NW Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds and slight seas outside of thunderstorms. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Central America and northern South America will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean the next couple of days. Winds should diminish slightly to fresh to strong beginning on Wed. A tropical wave, Invest AL95, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms while moving quickly westward. Development of this system is not expected while it continues to move rapidly westward over the Caribbean during the next few days. Even though development is unlikely, locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are expected with the wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough SW of Bermuda is supporting isolated moderate convection from 23N to 30N between 66W and 75W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted farther west near the NW Bahamas and eastern Florida. Otherwise, the weather pattern in the basin is dominated by a 1028 mb high centered between Bermuda and the Azores near 35N47W. In the western Atlantic winds are light to gentle outside of thunderstorms, with slight seas. In the central Atlantic, easterly winds are generally moderate with 4 to 6 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from the NE with areas of fresh NE winds along the African coast and between the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure dominating the area will gradually shift northward this week as a surface trough, currently located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda moves west-northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast over the next several days. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker over most of the area with moderate to fresh speeds for waters NE of the Leeward Islands. $$ Flynn