000 AXNT20 KNHC 250541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jul 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0525 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Most of the wave axis is enveloped by dry Saharan dust, thus no deep convection is present. A tropical wave, associated with Invest 95L, is near the Lesser Antilles, extending from 20N59W to 05N61W. The wave is moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 19N and between 50W and 64W, affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong easterly winds from 12N to 23N and between 52W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 6-9 ft in the area described, with the highest seas occurring near 15N55W. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or two before it moves into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds. Even though development is unlikely, locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or so, and this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 10N30W and to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 12N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 15N and east of 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf coast but no deep convection is noted with this feature. A few showers and thunderstorms are also noted in the western Bay of Campeche. The rest of the Gulf is under the influence of a weak high pressure system west of Florida and a dry airmass that suppresses the development of deep convection. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over southern Mexico support moderate to fresh easterly winds off NW Yucatan, especially south of 25N and east of 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered near the Florida Peninsula will remain dominant the feature for the Gulf into late this week. This will support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly. A stationary front just inland the northern Gulf coast will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms in adjacent waters for the next couple of days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the the subtropical ridge over Atlantic and a 1008 mb Colombian low continues to sustain strong to near gale easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean with moderate to fresh easterly breezes elsewhere. Seas are 6-10 ft in the south-central Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere. An upper level low is evident in the NW Caribbean Sea, near the Isle of Youth, Cuba, inducing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the waters in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Farther south, deep convection is present in the SW Caribbean, impacting the waters within 120 nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and western Panama. The aforementioned Invest 95L is also producing scattered showers over the eastern Caribbean. The remainder of the basin is under a dry Saharan airmass that suppresses the formation of showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Central America and northern South America will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean the next couple of days. Winds should diminish slightly to fresh to strong beginning on Wed. Fresh trades will occur over the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A tropical wave, Invest AL95, located just E of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms while moving quickly westward. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two before it moves into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds. Even though development is becoming less likely, locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or so. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1031 mb high pressure system located near 35N46W dominates the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. This is punctuated by a large outbreak of Saharan dust that is moving westward across most of the basin, suppressing the formation of showers and thunderstorms. However, a weak surface trough along 66W, from 24N to 28N, is generating a few showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N to 29N and between 65W and 72W. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward towards the southeastern U.S. coast later this week and into the weekend. This trough has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours. The weak pressure gradient prevalent across the basin sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft, mainly east of 65W and north of the deep tropics. Light to gentle easterly winds and 2-4 ft prevail west of 65W. The exception being the entrance of the Windward Passage, where moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure dominating the area will gradually shift northward this week. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N just N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker over most of the area with moderate to fresh speeds for waters NE of the Leeward Islands. $$ DELGADO