000 AXNT20 KNHC 191805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jul 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Don, at 19/1500 UTC, is near 33.9N 39.6W. Don is moving toward the WSW, or 255 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are within: 40 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or higher are within: 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The forecast for the maximum sea height is 13 feet. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is also near the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 16N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, just to the east of Nicaragua, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave from eastern Honduras southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The wave is along 96W/97W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N southward between 94W and 98W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of northern Senegal near 16N16W, to 10N30W 10N40W 08N48W. The ITCZ continues from 08N48W to 06N55W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 50W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 17N southward from 60W eastward, away from the tropical waves. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows an inverted trough in mostly the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N southward from 92W eastward. Scattered strong is from 24N to 26N in the Bahamas between 77W and 79W, near and in Andros Island. A broad east-to-west oriented surface ridge passes through the center of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet off the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights are reaching 3 feet from the middle Texas Gulf coast southward into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and in the Straits of Florida. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in the east central and west central sections. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot in the north central Gulf waters between the Florida Panhandle and the Louisiana waters. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow is everywhere. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds, except in the Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the night hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... One tropical wave is moving through the eastern one-third of the area. A second tropical wave is moving through the NW corner of the area. Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the NE and north central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola between 65W and 72W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is moving inland in the eastern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and near Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from Belize to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. The monsoon trough is along 09N76W in Colombia, beyond 08N81W in Panama. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is related just to the monsoon trough. The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet between 73W and 77W. The sea heights in general range from 6 feet to 9 feet between 67W and 81W. A value of 10 feet is off the coast of Colombia along 76W/77W. The sea heights range: from 3 feet to 4 feet in the Venezuela coastal waters from east to west; to 5 feet elsewhere from 70W eastward; reaching 4 feet in the SW corner of the area; to 2 feet in the Honduras coastal waters; from 3 feet to 4 feet in the coastal waters of Cuba in the NW corner of the area. Strong E winds are from 16N to 18N between 62W and 70W. Strong E-to-NE winds are from Colombia to Jamaica between 70W and 80W. Mostly fresh E-to-NE winds cover much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC, is: 0.43 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.24 in Bermuda, 0.09 in Trinidad, and 0.08 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong to near gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Wed through Thu during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about Tropical Storm Don in the central Atlantic Ocean near 33.9N 39.6W, at 19/1500 UTC. Fresh SE winds are from 25N southward between 57W and the Bahamas. Fresh NE winds are from 15N to 26N between 19W and 30W. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from: 3 feet to 5 feet north of 20N from 20W westward. Near the Canary Islands: the sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 19N northward from 20W eastward. IN the tropical Atlantic Ocean: the sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 12N to 19N between 31W and 55W. Near and just to the east of the Lesser Antilles: the sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 11N to 19N between 55W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands: the sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 11N to 19N between 20W and 31W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure over the area will weaken and shift east-southeastward beginning Thu as a cold front moves across the southeastern United States. This will support mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds and generally moderate seas just N of Hispaniola at night through Thu night. $$ mt/gr