000 AXNT20 KNHC 191024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jul 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Don is centered near 34.0N 39.3W at 19/0900 UTC or 640 nm WSW of the Azores, and drifting south at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Don is forecast to turn southwestward soon, turn westward tonight or on Thu, and then northwestward on Fri with an increase in forward speed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W from 04N to 19N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 09N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm east of the wave from 07N to 10N. A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 59W south of 17N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen from 08N to 14N between 55W and 61W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 81W S of 21N to central Panama. It is moving westward around 15 kt. It is Interacting with an upper-level low to the west near 18N84W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 16N and west of the wave, including the Yucatan Channel area and the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal and turns southwestward through 10N25W to 10N38W. The ITCZ extends from 10N38W to 10N46W to 08N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm S of the trough between 27W-31W. Scattered moderate is within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 40W-48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is coupling with the northern tip of a tropical wave to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms at the Bay of Campeche. An upper-level trough is producing isolated thunderstorms at the central and southeastern Gulf. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending westward from central Florida to just north of Tampico, Mexico continues to dominate the region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are noted at the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas existed at the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the weekend. This should support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the Bay of Campeche where winds will be moderate to fresh, enhanced by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the night hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms at the eastern basin. Refer to the Tropical Wave sections for additional weather in the basin. Tight gradient between the Bermuda High to the north and lower pressure at northwestern Colombia is causing fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft at the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Mainly fresh E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the north-central basin. Gentle E to ENE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident at the northwest basin and just north of Panama and Costa Rica. Moderate with locally fresh E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the waters near Cayman Islands. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will maintain fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, Wed through Thu during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds associated with the Bermuda High axis are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms at the central Bahamas. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge related to both the Bermuda and Azores Highs are promoting light to gentle with locally moderate ENE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 20N between 20W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen north of 19N between the Africa coast and 20W. Across the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are seen from 12N to 19N between 31W and 55W. Near and just east of the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are dominating from 11N to 19N between 55W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft existed from 11N to 19N between 20W and 31W. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal west winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High pressure will weaken and shift east-southeastward beginning Thu. This will support mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds and generally moderate seas just north of Hispaniola at night through Thu night. $$ Chan/Aguirre