000 AXNT20 KNHC 180932 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jul 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Don is centered near 36.3N 39.6W at 18/0900 UTC or 610 nm W of the Azores moving SE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas in excess of 12 ft extend out 120 nm in the south semicircle, and 90 nm and 60 nm in the northwest and northeast quadrants of the storm. Scattered moderate convection extends from 35N to 40N between 28W and 42W. Don is forecast to turn southward later today or tonight or so followed by a turn westward and then northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. On the forecast track, Don should remain over the open waters of the central Atlantic. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa early this morning. It axis is near 20W, extends from 02N to 18N, and is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 18N between 14W and 30W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, with axis near 50W, extending from 04N to 15N, and moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 45W and 60W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 74W, south of 21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is affecting Hispaniola and its adjacent waters. A tropical wave is moving across Central America into the E Pacific waters. Its axis is near 88W and is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean W of 80W, including the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 11N25W to 12N35W. The ITCZ continues from 12N35W to 12N45W, and from 11N50W to 10N65W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 09N to 13N east of 25W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm north and 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 52W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1018 mb high pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico near 27N91W, with weak troughs over the northeast Gulf and the southwest Gulf. Fresh NW winds are starting to pulse off the western coast of the Yucatan peninsula, but elsewhere the pattern is maintaining light to gentle breezes and slight seas. For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail through the forecast period supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. A trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain pulsing of moderate to fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on two tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds are active across the south-central Caribbean, as well as in the Windward Passage and off Cabo Beata on the south coast of Hispaniola. Seas are 6 to 9 ft over the southwest Caribbean, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Trade wind convergence is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms along coast of Nicaragua, and near the Gulf of Uraba along the Colombia/Panama border. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted off the coast of western Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat night. High pressure N of the area will build further westward, producing an increase in areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds from the middle to end of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras are forecast to reach fresh to strong speeds Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Depression Don in the central Atlantic Ocean. Divergent flow aloft on the east side of an upper low centered off northeast Florida is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from 28N to 30N between 67W and 70W, and isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas. A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near 32N56W to east- central Florida. A scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh winds funneling off the north coast of Hispaniola south of the ridge, and just north of the Mona Passage. Gentle to moderate winds are evident elsewhere west of 50W. Buoy and altimeter satellite data indicate seas are mostly 4 to 6 ft in this area. Farther east, light to gentle NE winds prevail north of 22N under the influence of the high pressure. South of 22N to the ITCZ from the coast of Africa to the Bahamas, easterly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail with seas 5-8 ft. South of the ITCZ, light to gentle winds with 4-5 ft seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, surface high pressure will prevail across the forecast waters this week. This will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of Hispaniola at night through early Fri. $$ Ramos