000 AXNT20 KNHC 170944 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jul 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Depression Don is centered near 39.2N 44.7W at 17/0900 UTC or 830 nm W of the Azores moving E at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate convection is in the Depression SE quadrant extending about 240 nm from the center. Don is forecast to turn southeastward later today, southward on Tuesday, and westward on Wednesday over the central Atlantic. Don could intensify slightly and transition into a fully tropical system during the next day or two. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 36W, from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 29W and 45W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean Sea with axis near 64W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are ongoing in the NE Caribbean. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean Sea with axis near 79W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are ongoing between the wave axis and the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W SW to 12N28W to 11N45W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the TROPICAL WAVES section, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 15N between 12W and 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure persists across the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 3-5 ft associated with a surface trough are affecting the waters of the Bay of Campeche, south of 23N and east of 95W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, weak surface high pressure and ridging will prevail through the forecast period supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. Otherwise, a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore with moderate to fresh winds continuing through the early morning hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean Sea through the coast of Costa Rica and continues eastward to NW Colombia. Two tropical waves moves across the basin and are generating shower activity. See the TROPICAL WAVES section for further details. Otherwise, surface high pressure N of the area extending a ridge along the northern Caribbean, continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the central basin where seas range between 5 to 9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Fri night. These winds will increase in areal coverage and extend to portions of the SW basin as two tropical waves move across these regions. Moderate to fresh winds are forecast for the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding Subtropical Depression Don. Divergence flow aloft is helping to generate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Atlantic, especially north of 26N and west of 63W. The remainder of the basin (west of 55W) is under the dominance of an expansive subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores. Fresh easterly trade winds are noted between the SE Bahamas and NE Cuba and northern Haiti, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Fresh to locally moderate northerly winds are found in the eastern Atlantic, mainly east of 25W. Seas in the area described are 4-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring off Morocco. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, surface high pressure and ridging will prevail across the forecast waters through Fri, supporting mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds and rough seas off Hispaniola at night. $$ Ramos