000 AXNT20 KNHC 140942 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jul 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Don is centered near 32.9N 46.8W at 14/0900 UTC or 1010 nm WSW of the Azores moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident with 150 nm in the eastern semicircle of Don. The storm will gradually weaken as it moves slowly northward or north- northwestward motion during the next couple of days as a building ridge over the central Atlantic prevents it from accelerating rapidly northward. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo France is continuing a gale warning for around the Canary Islands between low pressure over Mauritania and high pressure of the Azores. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 36W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 07N and between 35W and 38W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 54W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are seen near the trough axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 77W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present along the tropical wave axis between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau at 11N16W and continues to 14N25W to 09N35W to 12N45W. The ITCZ extends from 12N44W to 10N51W and then from 08N55W to 11N61W. Aside from the convection described in the TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 07N to 10N between 15W and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1016 mb high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Except for a few showers off SW Florida, no deep convection is seen on satellite imagery across the basin. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures over Mexico support moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters, through early next week, while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... Trade wind convergence along the monsoon trough over the southwest Cairbbean is supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms are present within 90 nm of the coast of Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted ahead of the tropical wave between Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and eastern Honduras. The rest of the Caribbean is under a generally dry weather pattern that only supports isolated showers produced by shallow pockets of moisture that catch a ride in the trade winds. The pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and lower pressures across NW South America support fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia. This was confirmed by an earlier scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 4-6 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a tropical wave that extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Panama will move across the remainder of the Caribbean through late Sat. Active weather is noted ahead of the tropical wave from eastern Honduras to central Cuba. Another tropical wave will move across the Windward Islands into the southeastern Caribbean Sat afternoon, then weaken as it moves across the central Caribbean through Sun night and across the western Caribbean Mon and Mon night. The passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding Subtropical Storm Don in the central Atlantic and a GALE WARNING in the eastern Atlantic. Two areas of high pressure anchor a broad ridge that dominate the tropical Atlantic. A 1019 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions across the western Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are noted south of 22N and west of 60W. Seas in the area described are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail in the rest of area W of 55W. Farther east, a 1026 mb high pressure system near the Azores maintains a primarily dry weather pattern across the eastern Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures over NW Africa support moderate to fresh easterly winds north of 22N and between 25W and 40W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are also present south of 20N and between 45W and the Lesser Antilles, along with seas of 4-6 ft. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist northeast of the Bahamas through Sun, supporting pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas off Hispaniola. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift northward early next week ahead of a tropical wave that will be approaching the area from the east. $$ Christensen