000 AXNT20 KNHC 132240 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jul 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Expiring Atlantic Gale Warning: As of 1800 UTC, Invest Area AL94 was located just north of the discussion area at 32.0N 48.4W. The minimum central pressure is 1003 mb and maximum sustained winds are near 35 kts. While the Ocean Prediction Center has an active gale warning for this system, earlier scatterometer pass found evidence that gale force winds extend south of 31N on the SE quadrant of the low. The gale force winds are ending for this system. Seas still continue to be 12-14 ft. Seas in excess of 8 ft extend as far south as 27N. Scattered moderate convection is observed N of 27N between 42W and 49W. Strong southerly winds extend as far south as 27N between 43W and 47W. This invest area currently has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and the next 7 days. However the gale warning is expiring at 21 UTC as the system slowly moves off to the north. Seas will also begin to subside overnight and drop below 8 ft by Fri night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 33W from 16N to 02N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 11N between 31W and 38W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 51W from 17N to 03N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are noted from 10N to 13N between 50W and 52W. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends from the coast of Haiti near 21N74W to the coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 16N to 22N between 72W and 78W, primarily in the Windward Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 16N16W to 11N27W to 11N44W. The ITCZ continues from 11N44W to 10N50W and from 09N53W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Outside of the convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 27W and 32W and from 08N to 11N between 54W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is moving NW across the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, high pressure continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico. In the western Gulf, winds are moderate to locally fresh from the SE-S with seas to 4 ft. In the eastern Gulf, anticyclonic winds are light to gentle around a 1017 mb high centered near 27N86W. Seas are 1-3 ft east of 90W. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters, through early next week, while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... For details about convection in the Caribbean Sea, please see the Tropical Wave section above. The standard gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean Sea is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the majority of the basin. Strong winds are noted north of Hispaniola, enhanced by the approaching tropical wave. Strong winds are noted in the south- central Caribbean and south of Hispaniola. Seas are 5-8 ft in the eastern and central basin, and 3-4 ft in the NW basin. For the forecast, a tropical wave that extends from the Windward Passage to NW Colombia will move across the remainder of the Caribbean through Sun. Active weather accompanies this wave N of 16N between 70W and 76W. Another tropical wave will move across the Windward Islands Sat afternoon, and enter the southeastern that afternoon. It will move across the rest of the southeastern Caribbean through Sun night and across the western Caribbean Mon and Mon night. The passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the period. Winds may briefly reach gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the special features section for information Invest area AL94 and the expiring gale warning in the central subtropical Atlantic. A surface trough near Florida is supporting scattered moderate convection from 24N to 28N between 76W and 80W. Otherwise, weak ridging along 22-27N is the dominate feature in the western and central Atlantic. Winds are generally moderate or less, except for fresh to strong easterlies north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico in addition to the strong to near gale winds associated with Invest Area AL94. Seas are generally 3-5 ft outside of the direct impacts from this system. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between the Azores high and lower pressure over NW Africa is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds, with strong funneling between the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist northeast of the Bahamas through Sun. Farther south, the northern end of a tropical wave will move westward across the waters south of 22N through Fri. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas south of 22N both ahead of and following the tropical wave. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift northward early next week ahead of another tropical wave that will be approaching the area. $$ AReinhart