435 AXNT20 KNHC 121552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jul 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, currently extending along 22W from 20N to 07N. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 12N between 18W and 23W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W from 15N to 01N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 10N between 37W and 43W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along a line from 21N62W to 08N66W, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed mainly west of the wave from 14N to 18N between 63W and 73W. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 85/86W, south of 21N, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 10N29W. The ITCZ continues in segments from 10N29W to 10N37W and from 08N43W to 07N53W. In addition to the convection described in the tropical wave section, scattered weak convection is observed along the western segment of the ITCZ from 06N to 09N between 44W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is moving NW across the Bay of Campeche supporting moderate to fresh winds and 3 to 4 ft seas over the southwest and west-central Gulf. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from the Atlantic to the central Gulf, supporting a gentle breeze and slight seas. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between a high-pressure ridge in the Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea is enhanced by a tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean. Easterly trade winds are moderate to fresh in the central and eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are funneling through the Windward Passage. Seas are 6-8 ft throughout the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will move westward to the central Caribbean through Thu and the western Caribbean through Sun. Another tropical wave will move across the Windward Islands Fri, across the southeast Caribbean Sat and into the south-central Caribbean Sun. The passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the NW Atlantic from 31N70W to 28N80W. A line of thunderstorms is observed along the frontal boundary. North of the front, winds are gentle from the W-NW. South of the front, winds are moderate from the SW. Seas are generally 3-5 ft on either side. Invest area AL94 is located near 34N52W, with a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. While this system is north of the discussion area, fresh to strong S winds and weak convection are observed north of 27N between 48W and 51W. Otherwise across the western and central basin, the subtropical ridge extends westward along 25/26N. Winds are gentle near the ridge axis. North of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the west. South of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the east. Seas are 4-5 ft along the ridge axis, and 5-7 ft on either side. In the eastern Atlantic, NE winds are moderate to fresh with 5-7 ft seas. Similar conditions extend into the central Atlantic south of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist northeast of the Bahamas through Sun. A weak cold front extending from 31N69W to 28N79W will stall between NE Florida and Bermuda late today and dissipate tonight into Thu morning. Farther south, the northern end of a tropical wave will move westward across the waters south of 22N through Fri. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas south of 22N both ahead of and following the tropical wave. $$ Flynn