000
AXNT20 KNHC 070831
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 
19N southward, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 20W and 25W.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 19N
southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is 
isolated and weak.

The axis of a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles is near 58W
from 18N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 17N 
between 53W and 59W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 82W from 21N
southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 74W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N17W 
to 08N31W. The ITCZ continues from 08N31W to 05N39W. It resumes
from 05N46W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N to 10N between 32W and 35W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 27N87W. A surface trough
is over the SW Gulf just off the western coast of the Yucatan
peninsula. The pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and the trough as well as lower pressure over Mexico is 
supporting moderate SE to S winds in the SW and W Gulf. Light to
gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Seas are in
the 2-3 ft range W of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse north and 
west of the Yucatan peninsula each evening as a diurnal trough 
develops and moves offshore. Weak high pressure situated over the 
eastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight 
seas elsewhere. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge N of the area
and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong
trade winds over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the
south central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds across the central 
Caribbean will gradually diminish today. Fresh to strong trades 
over the central Caribbean will develop again Sun night. Fresh to 
locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight 
and Sat night. 
  
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across the discussion waters N of 20N, with
the exception of a weak 1017 mb low pressure near 27N58W. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail across the waters S of 22N as well as W
of 70W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 22N and W of 35W.
Fresh to strong winds are noted N of 22N and E of 35W. Seas are in
the 7-9 ft range from 15N to 24N and E of 31W. Seas of 4-7 ft are
elsewhere S of 21N, and 3-5 ft N of 21N.  
 
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a 
weak pressure gradient and lead to gentle winds across most of the
area into tonight. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will prevail
into early next week, pulsing to locally strong N of Hispaniola 
during the late afternoon and evening hours through Sat. The high 
pressure ridge will shift south Sat night, ahead of a series of 
weak troughs moving between northeast Florida and Bermuda through 
Sun. These troughs will produce fresh SW winds across the northern
waters Sat through Mon. 

$$
AL