000 AXNT20 KNHC 040550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jul 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is relocated to near 20W from 15N southward, and moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 14N between the Senegal-Guinea Bissau coast and 23W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is reanalyzed to be near 35W from 17N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are evident from 04N to 10N between 34W and 38W. A well-defined western Atlantic tropical wave is near 60W from near Barbados southward to western Guyana, and moving west around 15 kt. Aided by abundant moisture, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from northeastern Venezuela/northern Guyana northward to the southern Leeward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 18N southward across Providencia and San Andres to near the Costa Rica-Panama border, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted north of Panama and Costa Rica, and near Providencia and San Andres. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near Dakar and extends southwestward to near 12N23W. Other than the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, there is no additional convection near the trough. An ITCZ continues from 12N23W to near 08N34W, then resumes westward from 06N38W to 06N51W. Widely scattered showers are seen up to 80 nm along either side of the first ITCZ segment. Scattered moderate convection is present near and up to 90 nm north of the second ITCZ segment. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough near 11N is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A diurnal surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the south-central Bay of Campeche. Another surface trough across Florida is producing similar conditions near the Florida Keys. Otherwise, a modest 1017 mb high at the east-central Gulf and its related surface ridge continue to dominate the region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are evident at the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE return flow with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the modest surface ridge will prevail through midweek, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow west of 90W and light to gentle winds east of 90W. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse nightly north and west of the Yucatan peninsula into Wed as the diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Expect scattered thunderstorms across the SW Gulf Tue through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough reaches north-northeastward from northern Colombia through the Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found near the trough axis over Haiti and the Windward Passage, and also farther east across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and northern Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections above for additional convection in the Caribbean. Tighter gradient between the Atlantic Ridge near the northwest Bahamas and monsoon trough over northern Colombia is causing fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong E to ESE trades associated with a tropical wave, along with 6 to 9 ft seas exist at the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted near the ABC Islands and the Cayman Islands/Jamaica and the Windward Passage/Cuba. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are found north of Panama and Costa Rica. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will develop in the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed night near and behind a tropical wave that is moving across the Lesser Antilles tonight. Expect squalls and scattered thunderstorms to accompany this tropical wave through Tue night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere through Sat, while fresh to strong trades persist across the south-central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Sahara Dust Layer (SAL) of modest thickness covers much of the tropical Atlantic with its leading edge over Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Hazy conditions with slightly reduced visibilities are expected within this layer for the next couple of days. A robust upper-level trough stretches northward from the Dominican Republic across an upper low near 27N66W to beyond northeast of Bermuda. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near these features from 22N to 30N between 60W and 74W. A surface trough near the east coast of Florida is triggering similar conditions at southeastern Florida and the northwest Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from a 1029 mb Azores High across 31N45W to near the northwest Bahamas. This feature is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft, north of 23N between 20W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, Moderate with locally fresh NNE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas exist north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 20W. Farther south near the Cabo Verde Islands, Gentle NW to NE winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are present from 13N to 22N between the central Africa coast and 30W. To the west, moderate to fresh ENE to ESE trades and 6 to 9 ft seas dominate from 06N to 23N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly and westerly monsoonal winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic Ridge will maintain a weak pressure gradient and sustain light to gentle winds for the waters north of 22N through midweek. South of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Thu, trailing behind an active tropical wave moving through the Caribbean Sea. $$ Forecaster Chan