000 AXNT20 KNHC 032202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jul 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W from 17N southward to near 06N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 14N between 19W and 23W. A well-defined western Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W from 14N southward to Guyana, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 16N between 54W and 64W. Fresh to strong winds are found along the wave with seas up to 10 ft. This wave will move across the Lesser Antilles tonight, increasing moisture and instability over the islands. A well-defined tropical wave in the Caribbean is along 81W from 18N southward to Panama, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 77W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and extends SW to 12N20W. The ITCZ continues from 12N20W to 05N36W to 06N49W. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with either the monsoon trough or the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends along 11N from Costa Rica to Colombia. This feature is interacting with a tropical wave leading to scattered moderate to isolated strong convection. For more information please see the Tropical Wave section. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the eastern and northern Gulf; however, mainly dry conditions prevail across the rest of the Gulf waters. High pressure centered just offshore Florida Panhandle continues to dominate the sensible weather. This is leading to mostly light to gentle S to SE winds and seas of 3 ft or less. Moderate winds are noted off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail into mid- week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and again Tue night as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Expect active thunderstorms across the SW Gulf Tue through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections above for details on convection in the Caribbean. The difference in pressure between high pressure mainly N of 25N and low pressure centered along the Colombian coast is leading to fresh to strong E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail in the northwest Caribbean with seas 4 to 6 ft. S of 12N, winds are light to gentle, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Greater Antilles. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the east and central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Wed night with and behind a tropical wave that is moving across the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. Expect squalls and scattered thunderstorms to accompany this tropical wave tonight through Tue night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period, while fresh to strong trades persist across south central portions. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough axis extend from E of Bermuda to NE of Hispaniola. It is inducing scattered convection N of 25N between 57W and 66W. Convection in the the deep tropical Atlantic is being generated by a tropical wave. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information. A dominant ridge of high pressure sprawling across most waters N of 23N is leading to light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft for these waters. Some moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of up to 6 ft are impacting waters near the Canary Islands. To the S of 23N, moderate to fresh winds are depicted in the waters W of 30W with seas 6-8 ft. E of 30W, winds are light to gentle to the African coast with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak Bermuda High will maintain a weak pressure gradient, and lead to light gentle winds across most of the area into mid-week. S of 22N, winds will increase to moderate to fresh starting tonight, then continue through Thu, occurring with and behind an active tropical wave moving through the Caribbean. $$ AReinhart