000
AXNT20 KNHC 022316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 21W, from 06N to 20N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is behind the wave axis 
from 07N to 15N east of 21W to the coast of W Africa.

A tropical wave is along 51W, from 15N southward, moving W at 15
to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 11N
between 49W and 55W. Moderate to fresh winds are near the wave
axis, with seas of 8 to 9 ft per altimeter data behind the wave.

A tropical wave is moving W across the Caribbean Sea. Its axis is
along 68W, from 17N southward over western Venezuela, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the northern end of
the wave axis. Moderate to fresh easterly winds follow the wave
with seas of 5 to 7 ft based on altimeter data.

A tropical wave has its axis along 88W from 20N southward across
northern Central America into the EPAC region. The wave is helping
to induce convection over the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near 20N16W, then continues SW to near 10N24W to 06N32W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N32W to 09N47W. Aside for the convection related 
to the tropical waves, no significant convection is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters, with light to gentle winds
and slight seas. An area of gentle to moderate E to SE winds is
seen to the W of the Yucatan Peninsula, likely associated with 
the thermal trough that develops there at night and moves westward
over the Bay of Campeche during the morning hours. A few showers
and isolated thunderstorms are observed, mainly across the northern
half of the basin. 

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail through early
this week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of
90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and 
west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a diurnal trough develops
and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula are expected
to become fresh starting Mon night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge reaches the NE Caribbean. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and the Colombian low supports moderate to 
fresh trades over the east and central Caribbean, while gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
over the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except 1 to
3 ft in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba and the far NW part
of the basin, including the Yucatan Channel. 

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the SW Caribbean, 
including parts of northern Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. A 
diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective 
activity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flared up over 
the Greater Antilles due to daytime heating, local sea breezes 
and mountain upslope lifting. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the 
central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong 
Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south- 
central waters decrease some tonight, then increase and expand in
coverage Mon night through Tue night. Gentle to moderate trade 
winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Showers and thunderstorms are noted across the Atlantic mostly N
of 20N and W of 55W, including the Bahamas. This convective activity
is generated by an upper-level trough that extends from near Bermuda
to 24N70W and then WNW parallel to the Bahamas. A surface trough
is analyzed in that area and runs from a 1013 mb low pressure
located NE of Bermuda near 35N60W to 30N61W to 24N64W. The remainder
of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence of a ridge
with a 1024 mb high pressure located near 30N45W, and a main center
of 1029 mb situated just N of the Azores. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds are across the basin north of 20N W of 50W, with seas of 4 to
6 ft. South of 20N, trades are mainly moderate with seas of 5 to 7
ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will lead
to mainly gentle winds across the area for the first part of the
week. S of 22N, winds will increase to moderate to fresh starting
Mon. 

$$
GR