000 AXNT20 KNHC 020530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jul 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 13N southward, and moving westward around 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found from 08N to 12N between 43W and 50W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 16N southward into northeast Venezuela, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted north of the ABC Islands and over northeast Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from the northern Honduras coast southward, parallel to the Nicaragua coast through Costa Rica into the Pacific Ocean. It is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras and near the Nicaragua coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, curves southwestward to 09N30W then continues westward to 06N49W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of the trough from 03N to 11N between the Guinea- Sierra Leone coast and 36W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A diurnal surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms at the southeastern Bay of Campeche. Two more surface troughs are producing similar conditions at the central Gulf and near the Florida Panhandle. Otherwise, a 1016 mb high over the northeastern Gulf continues to dominate much of the region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are evident at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE return flow and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the 1016 mb high and related ridging will prevail through early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow west of 90W and light to gentle winds east of 90W. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight and again Sun night as the diurnal trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula are expected to become fresh starting Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough extends east-northeastward from an upper low over the Yucatan Peninsula across the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. Coupling with convergent trade winds, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near the Cayman Islands, eastern and central Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section at the beginning for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ridge near the southeast Bahamas and Colombian low are causing fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft at the south-central basin, north of Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft exist at the northwestern and southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are found elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and eastern basin will increase to between fresh and strong Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central basin should decrease Sun night but increase again and expand in areal coverage Mon night into Tue night. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere through midweek next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic Ridge stretches southwestward from a 1025 mb high near 30N43W to near the central Bahamas. An upper-level trough reaches northeastward from western Cuba across the central Bahamas to north of Bermuda. Divergent flow related to this feature is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Atlantic Ridge axis, over the central Bahamas, and farther northeast from 22N to 30N between 54W and 73W. At the central Atlantic, a pronounced upper-level low near 36N40W is generating widely scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 38W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted southeast of Bermuda, north of 28N between 53W and 60W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas dominate north of 24N between 35W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are present north of 18N between the Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh ENE to E trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are found from 08N to 24N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades with seas of 4 to 7 ft exist from 10N to 18N between 20W and 35W. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 4 to 5 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extending south of Bermuda will lift north of 31N tonight. From tonight through Sun, gentle to moderate winds will prevail east of 65W, and light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. South of 22N, winds will increase to between moderate and fresh starting Mon. $$ Forecaster Chan