000 AXNT20 KNHC 011002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jul 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 13N southward, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 35W and 39W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands near 60W from 15N southward to Guyana Venezuela border, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near near Barbados, the southern Windward Islands, and over Trinidad and Tobago. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from southwest of Jamaica southward through central Panama, and moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near Providencia and Andrea, and near the Panama coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast just north of Nouakchott, then curves southwestward across 08N31W to 08N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 08N to 13N between the Guinea Bissau/Guinea coast and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 04N to 10N between 25W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Convection associated with a diurnal surface trough in the eastern Bay of Campeche has dissipated early this morning. Another weak surface trough that had extended from the Atlantic SW across Florida and into the Florida Straits has also dissipated. A broad surface ridge stretching southwestward from northern Florida to the western Gulf continues to dominate the region. Moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are evident at the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle mainly SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula are expected to become fresh Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection previously associated with an upper level trough across the NW Caribbean has dissipated early this morning. The remaining convection in the basin is associated with tropical waves, depicted in the Tropical Waves section above. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the central basin. Mainly fresh trades dominate the eastern basin and the Gulf of Honduras, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the remainder of the Caribbean, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present. For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Tue into Tue night. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central waters will expand in coverage through Tue. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layer trough extends from near 31N68W to just offshore Cuba. This trough is leading to scattered moderate convection between 21N and 27N, in the vicinity of and just E of the Bahamas. Another trough extending from E of Bermuda to near 27N65W is inducing scattered moderate convection N of 27N between 60W and 65W. The remaining convection in the tropical Atlantic is associated with tropical waves and the monsoon trough, detailed in the respective sections above. High pressure of 1030 mb centered near 32N32W extends W and SW toward the Greater Antilles and is dominating much of the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found east of the surface trough that extends S of Bermuda. Otherwise, for areas W of 60W as well as areas to the E, N of 25N, winds are mainly light to gentle with seas of 3 to 5 ft. to the S of 25N and E of 60W, moderate to fresh trades dominate with seas of 7 to 9 ft. In the far E Atlantic in the vicinity fo the Canary Islands, fresh to locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 45W, The surface trough currently S of Bermuda will lift N of the area by tonight, while the trough further W will dissipate. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sun east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere. S of 22N, winds will increase to moderate to fresh starting Sun night. $$ KONARIK