000 AXNT20 KNHC 301205 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jun 30 2023 Updated to add the East Atlantic Gale Warning Special Feature Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING for the AGADIR Offshore Zone, from 30/1500 UTC to 01/0000 UTC. N to NE winds will reach Force 8 near Cape Ghir, with severe gusts. Seas are 8-11 ft, and may peak to 12 ft this evening and early tonight. For more information, please see the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W and south of 16N to 02N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ahead of this wave to 32W and from 02N to 07N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of the wave axis to 22W and from 03N to 08N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from 14N53W to 09N54W and continues south-southwestward to Suriname. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave to near 50W and from 09N to 11N. In addition, scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm west of the wave reaching to Guyana and from 04N to 06N. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W from the southwestern tip of Haiti southward to inland Venezuela. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over Haiti. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are seen from 18N to 19N between 74W-75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast just north of Nouakchott, then continues southwestward to 11N23W and to 08N38W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N46W and to 10N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 37W-42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the trough between 31W-37W, also within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 42W-46W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 48W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A diurnal surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Another surface trough is leading to similar conditions near the southwest coast of Florida, including the Florida Keys. Otherwise, the anticyclonic wind flow attributed to a 1015 mb high over the north-central Gulf dominates much of the region. Moderate to fresh return flow and seas of 3-5 ft are present across the western Gulf, and also over the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds with relatively low seas of 1-3 ft seas remain over the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail through the weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula are expected to become fresh to strong Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad high pressure extends southwestward from the eastern Atlantic to near Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over the waters just south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to 31N and between 56W-66W. This activity is being sustained by a rather broad and weak upper-level trough that is positioned over the western Atlantic. Similar activity extends from the southeastern Bahamas to eastern Cuba and the waters between Haiti and eastern Cuba. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure that is over central Caribbean has resulted in fresh to strong easterly winds along with seas of 6-8 ft in the south-central part of the basin, north of Colombia. Mostly gentle northeast-east trade winds per latest ASCAT data, are over the northwest part of the basin. Seas there are 2-4 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds and seas of 4-5 ft are over the southwestern part of the Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. Enhanced convection is confined to the extreme southwestern Caribbean south of 11N and west of 79W due to the presence of the eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and eastern basin will increase to between fresh and strong Mon and Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central waters will expand in coverage through Mon night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic stationary front enters the area at 31N77W and continues southwestward to near Cape Canaveral, Florida and continues as a decaying front over central Florida. A surface trough out ahead of it extends from 28N77W to South Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 26N to 31N and between 72W-77W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere near and over sections of the Bahamas. Father east, another surface trough is analyzed from near 31N62W to weak low pressure near 30N64W 1014 mb and continues southwestward to 27N69W. An area of scattered moderate convection lifting north- northeast is seen from 28N to 31N between 57W-62W. An overnight ASCAT pass highlighted fresh to strong southeast-south winds north of 30N and between 59W-61W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. Moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft are seen north of 20N between 55W-65W. Otherwise, the gradient associated to broad high pressure over the area is resulting in light to gentle east-southeast winds and seas of 3-4 ft between 35W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Fresh north- northeast trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft are over the waters north of 20N between the Africa coast and 35W. In the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh northeast to east-southeast trade winds along with 5-7 ft seas are seen from 09N to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to locally moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with seas of 4-6 ft due to a moderately southerly swell remain over the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough with weak low pressure along it is located SSE of Bermuda. The trough and low pressure will move north of 31N by early this afternoon along with the fresh to strong southeast to south winds that are presently to its east and southeast. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere. $$ Aguirre/Mahoney