480 AXNT20 KNHC 271728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jun 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 32W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is under the influence of Saharan dry air and dust and lacks significant convection. An active and fast-moving tropical wave extends its axis along 69W, from 18N southward, moving W at about 20 to 25 kt. A broad area of showers with embedded thunderstorms, associated with this wave is affecting the Lesser Antilles, mainly south of Guadeloupe and the easter Caribbean. Moisture associated with this system will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles today, spreading over the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong winds behind the wave axis north of 15N. Recent altimeter data show wave heights up to 10 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 12N16W to 10N30W to 05N43W. The ITCZ continues from 05N43W to 09N56W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is off the coast of Africa from 05N to 13N between 11W and 18W. This convective activity could be associated with the next tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 09N between 20W and 27W, and from 03N to 08N between 40W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface high pressure, with a 1015 mb center near 25N90W dominates the weather conditions across the Gulf waters supporting mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of a surface trough over the west Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions prevail. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail through the weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and light to gentle variable wind over the eastern half of the basin. Otherwise, fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Sat as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands and is forecast to affect US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Please see Tropical Waves section for more details. A weak pressure gradient is across the region as the remnants of Cindy has weakened the Bermuda-Azores High. This is resulting in gentle to moderate trade winds basin-wide with seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, moderate trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh speeds Wed night through Sun night as a wave move across this area. Winds will likely reach strong speeds Fri into Sat night as the wave move across the central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Cindy, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than 400 miles to the south of Bermuda. While strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent redevelopment of this system over the day or so, environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for some gradual development during the latter part of this week. The system is forecast to move generally northward over the western Atlantic, passing near Bermuda on Thursday. Recent scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong winds within about 150 nm northeast quadrant of center. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov A surface trough remains east of the coast of Florida and extends from 31N79W to near southeast Florida. This trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the northwest Bahamas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are east of the trough north of 29N while mainly gentle to moderate winds are noticed south of 29N. Another surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic and extends from 31N28W 28N22W. No significant convection is seen with this system, and only light winds are noted on either side of the trough, with seas of 6 to 8 ft due to a northeast swell. The remainder subtropical waters are under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High. Outside of the tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea, and the remnants of Cindy, gentle to moderate winds are observed per scatterometer data over the central Atlantic, with light to gentle winds elsewhere N of 20N, except near the coast of Mauritania where moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted. Seas are generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh SE winds to the E of the remnants of Cindy will lift N of the area Thu. Fresh SW winds across the NE Florida offshore waters will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds tonight as an approaching front weakens into a surface trough. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere. $$ KRV/GR