000 AXNT20 KNHC 250950 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jun 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cindy is centered near 20.3N 57.2W at 25/0900 UTC or 370 nm NE of the Lesser Antilles moving NW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Rough to very rough seas and scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active within 180 nm in the northeast semicircle of the center of Cindy. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 13N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 32W and 36W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis over the Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 06N45W to 07N52W. Scattered convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 20W and 27W, and from 07N to 10N between 40W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends from southwest Florida to the Upper Texas coast. A trough is moving off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Fresh winds, 3 to 5 ft seas and scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident near the trough. Gentle to moderate breezes and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure extending from southwest Florida to the upper Texas coast will move little through mid week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through mid week as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing some hazy conditions over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The remnants of Bret are moving through the south-central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated this was an open wave, with a broad area of fresh to strong to winds over the central Caribbean. Buoy observations confirm combined seas are 6 to 9 ft there as well. The scatterometer pass indicated fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are likely 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas associated with the remnant trough of Bret will gradually diminish across the central and southwest Caribbean through tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds will persist across the Caribbean thereafter through mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Cindy. A surface ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic to east- central Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north of 28N and west of 75W off northeast Florida between the ridge and a stationary front along the coast, and ahead of a mid to upper level trough over the southeast U.S. Farther east, a trough extends from weak 1018 mb low pressure near 30N60W to 22N64W. A few showers and thunderstorms are active within 60 nm east of the trough between 23N and 26N. Fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted south of 20N, and moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident north of 20N, outside of the area around Tropical Storm Cindy. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Cindy near 20.3N 57.2W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Cindy will move to 21.9N 58.8W this afternoon, 23.7N 60.6W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 25.2N 61.7W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. Elsewhere, high pressure extending from the north-central Atlantic to the Bahamas will lift northward through early Sun ahead of T.S. Cindy. $$ Christensen