000 AXNT20 KNHC 242318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jun 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The remnants of Bret are centered near 13.1N 73.8W at 24/2100 UTC, or 140 nm WNW of the northern tip of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas or 12 ft or greater are within 90 nm in the NE quadrant and 60 nm in the NW quadrant, with seas up to 15 ft. Scattered showers are noted S of 17N between 66W-73W. The remnants of Bret are forecast to dissipate over the central Caribbean tonight. Despite this, swells generated by the remnants of Bret will affect coastal areas adjacent to the central Caribbean Sea through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Cindy is centered near 17.8N 54.7W at 24/2100 UTC, or 400 nm ENE of the Lesser Antilles, moving NW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas or 12 ft or greater are within 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 90 nm SE quadrant, and 60 nm NW quadrant, with seas up to 18 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 16N-26N between 47W-57W. Weakening is forecast over the next several days, and Cindy could degenerate into a trough of low pressure by the middle portion of this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 32W and S of 13N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-11N between 31W-35W. A tropical wave is along 84W, from 17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W then continues SW to near 09N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N35W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 01N to 11N between 36W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters. A surface trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf and extends 23N96W to near Veracruz, Mexico. A cluster of moderate convection is on southern portion of the trough mainly S of 19N. A convection-less cold front extends along the NE Gulf coast along 30N and E of 88W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the SE Gulf affecting the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula as well as the Straits of Florida. Another area of scattered moderate convection prevails across northern Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin, with seas of 2 to 4. For the forecast, the high pressure will move little through mid week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through mid week as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing some hazy conditions over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about T.S. Bret and T.S. Cindy, ant the tropical wave. The Atlantic ridge reaches the NE Caribbean and the Greater Antilles. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the remnants of Bret supports an area of fresh to strong winds between Dominican Republic and western Venezuela. This area of winds will move westward in tandem with Bret through Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are observed. Outside of Bret, seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, with an area of 6 to 7 ft over the SW Caribbean and seas of 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, the remnants of Bret will dissipate Sun morning. Farther east, Tropical Storm Cindy will move well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands near 19.7N 56.7W by Sun morning, and will continue moving further north of the area through mid week while weakening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Cindy. A 1016 mb low pressure is located near 28N57W with a surface trough extending SW to near 24N59W. Another trough extends eastward from the low center to near 29N50W. A well defined swirl of low clouds is noted on visible satellite imagery related to this low. An area of fresh to strong winds is noted per scatterometer data within about 180 nm N of the low center due to the pressure gradient between the low and high pressure of 1027 mb situated near 36N47W. To the east, a surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, runs from 31N33W to 28N40W. The aforementioned high pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas outside of the area of TS Cindy. An area of fresh to strong N to NE winds is seen from 18N to 22N between the coast of Mauritania and 21W due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over W Africa. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active E of Florida to about 75W ahead of a mid to upper level trough approaching the area from the west. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Cindy Cindy move to 19.7N 56.7W Sun morning, 21.8N 58.8W Sun afternoon, 23.9N 60.6W Mon morning, 25.5N 61.4W Mon afternoon, 27.0N 62.1W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure extending from the north-central Atlantic to the Bahamas will lift northward through early Sun ahead of T.S. Cindy. $$ ERA