932 AXNT20 KNHC 231803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jun 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bret is over the eastern Caribbean near 13.3N 64.7W at 23/1500 UTC or 205 nm W of St. Vincent, moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas near the center are up to 25 ft. Seas 12 ft or greater extend up to 105 nm from the center, especially in the northern quadrant. Westerly wind shear results in the convection occurring mainly over the easterly quadrant, affecting the eastern Caribbean and Windward Islands. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Bret is expected to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Cindy is over the tropical Atlantic near 12.5N 48.0W at 23/1500 UTC or 795 nm E of the Lesser Antilles, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 150 nm of the center. Wave heights near the center are up to 11 ft. Cindy is expected to maintain tropical storm strength as it moves to the northeast of the Leeward Islands through Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W, from 03N to 14N, moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 09N between 22W and 27W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from Jamaica to eastern Panama, moving W around 10 kt. This tropical wave was also evident in the latest sounding from Kingston, Jamaica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of 20N and between 75W and 84W. The convection in the SW Caribbean is enhanced by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough that extends from northern Costa Rica to NW Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is evident from the coast of Guinea-Bissau from 12N16N to 06N30W. The ITCZ begins at 06N30W and extends to 13N44W. In addition the convection already discussed in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 09N and east of 18W. Similar convection is seen from 03N to 08N and between 32W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are present in the north- central Gulf of Mexico due to a stationary frontal boundary along the northern Gulf coast. Elsewhere, no significant convection is evident at this time. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted south of 25N and between 90W and 95W. Seas are 3-5 ft in the area described. Elsewhere outside of convection, light to gentle southerly winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure extending from southwest Florida to the upper Texas coast will move little through early next week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night from tonight through Sun night as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing some hazy conditions over sections of the western Gulf south of 25N. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Bret. Outside of the convection being produced by Bret and the tropical wave, only weak isolated showers are noted across the Caribbean Sea due to shallow pockets of moisture. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong easterly winds off the coast of NW Colombia. Seas in the area are 6-9 ft. In the remainder of the Caribbean south of 20N, moderate to fresh easterly breezes prevail, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bret is near 13.3N 64.7W 1002 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Bret will move to 13.4N 67.0W this evening, 13.5N 70.5W Sat morning, 13.6N 74.0W Sat evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 13.6N 77.4W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening. The remnant trough of Bret will continue across the southwest Caribbean through Mon. Farther east, Tropical Storm Cindy is near 12.5N 48.0W 1003 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Cindy will move to 13.6N 50.0W this evening, 15.2N 52.5W Sat morning, 16.9N 55.2W Sat evening, and 18.7N 57.7W Sun morning. Cindy will move to the northeast of Leeward Islands near 20.2N 60.0W Sun evening, then continue to move well north of the area through the early part of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Cindy. A line of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 28N and between 75W and 79W. Outside of convection, light winds are east to southeast, with seas 3-4 ft. A 1017 mb low pressure is located near 27N53W and a warm front extends from the low center to 45W, while a cold front extends southward. Showers are noted north of the warm front. Moderate northeasterly winds are present with seas 3-5 ft. Another area of moderate winds and seas 3-4 ft are present near the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted at this time as high pressure centered northeast of Bermuda dominates the sensible weather. Winds across the basins are light and variable at times with seat 3-4 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Cindy near 12.5N 48.0W 1003 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Cindy will move to 13.6N 50.0W this evening, 15.2N 52.5W Sat morning, 16.9N 55.2W Sat evening, 18.7N 57.7W Sun morning, 20.2N 60.0W Sun evening, and 21.8N 62.2W Mon morning. Cindy will weaken to a tropical depression near 24.0N 64.9W early Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure extending from the north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift northward through early Sun ahead of T.S. Cindy. $$ KRV/SDR