000 AXNT20 KNHC 231005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jun 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bret is centered over the eastern Caribbean near 13.4N 62.9W at 23/0900 UTC or 100 nm W of St. Vincent moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. The wave heights have subsided somewhat as Bret has moved across the northern Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands. The highest seas surround Martinique and Saint Vincent, where 12 to 16 ft wave heights are likely. A large area of 8 to 12 ft seas persist over Atlantic waters west of 57W, and over the eastern Caribbean west of 64W. Convection has diminished from earlier as Bret moves into the eastern Caribbean, but scattered showers and thunderstorms persist within 90 nm of the center of Bret. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Cindy is centered over the tropical Atlantic near 12.1N 46.9W at 23/0900 UTC or 860 nm E of the Lesser Antilles, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are active within 90 nm of the center. Wave heights are 8 to 11 ft within 120 nm of the center. Cindy is expected to maintain tropical storm strength as it moves to the northeast of the Leeward Islands through Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W, from 03N to 14N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 08N between 22W and 26W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from Jamaica to eastern Panama, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident where the tropical wave interacts with the monsoon trough, specifically south of 11N between 75W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau from 12N16W to 08N25W to 09N40W. In addition the convection already discussed in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 09N between 12W and 16W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving east across the Florida Big Bend area in the northeast Gulf, associated with an upper trough that extends from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Gulf. A surface ridge extends from southwest Florida to the upper Texas coast. Farther south, a trough is moving across the far southwest Gulf from the western coast of the Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Veracruz. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the southwest Gulf, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, the high pressure extending from southwest Florida to the upper Texas coast will move little through early next week, maintaining mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas over the Gulf. The exception will be fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night from tonight through Sun night as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing some hazy conditions over sections of the western Gulf south of 25N. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Bret and Tropical Storm Cindy. A sharp mid to upper trough extends across the eastern Gulf along roughly 65W. Shear and dry air aloft associated with the trough is impacting Tropical Storm Bret, currently moving into the eastern Caribbean. An altimeter satellite pass from 0230 UTC and recent reports from Buoy 42060 over the northeast Caribbean indicate seas are building in excess of 8 ft. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, where a concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicated seas approaching 8 ft off Colombia. A more recent scatterometer pass from 0320 UTC indicated fresh to strong E to SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras, where combined seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Trade wind convergence was supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. For the forecast, Bret will continue to move westward before weakening and dissipating over the central Caribbean by late Sat. Trade wind flow and wave heights will diminish across the basin early in the week, but then increase over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Bret and Tropical Storm Cindy. A surface ridge extends from high pressure northeast of Bermuda to the central Bahamas, supporting fresh to strong winds funneling along the northern coast of Hispaniola, with 5 to 7 ft seas. It is also supporting moderate to fresh SW winds off the coast of northeast Florida. E to SE swell associated with T.S. Bret is maintaining combined seas of 6 to 8 ft north of the Leeward Islands. Farther east, moderate NE winds are evident north of a cold front reaching from 31N36W to 28N50W, with a surface ridge farther east over the eastern Atlantic. Wave heights are generally 4 to 6 ft north of 20N, and 5 to 7 ft south of 20N, except higher near T.S. Bret and T.S. Cindy. For the forecast west of 55W, T. S. Cindy will move to the northeast of the Leeward Islands near 19.4N 59.0W by Sun afternoon, and then reach 20.9N 61.4W Mon morning. Cindy will likely weaken as it moves farther to the north of the Leeward Islands through early Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure extending from the north- central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift northward through early Sun ahead of T.S. Cindy. $$ Christensen