000 AXNT20 KNHC 190355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning Central Tropical Atlantic Low (AL92): The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W, from 01N to 16N, and is moving W at around 15 kt. 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 10N36W. Winds are currently strong north of the low-pressure center, generating 9-11 ft seas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 13N between 33W and 40W. This activity is gradually becoming better organized and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 kt across the central tropical Atlantic with further development through the middle part of the week. Winds are forecast to reach 35 kt or greater by late Mon night and a gale warning has been issued. There is a high (90%) chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and a high (90%) chance of development through the next seven days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the tropical wave (with AL92) in the central Atlantic. A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic extends along 23W from 02W to 16W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed west of the wave from 07N to 10N between 25W and 28W. Some slow development of this system is possible through the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves westward at about 10 to 15 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The current Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low (10%) probability of generating a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, and a low (20%) probability over the next seven days. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 48W from 01N to 12N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 65W from 02N to 13N, moving W at around 15 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W, through AL92 near 10N36W, to 06N45W. No ITCZ is currently present. All significant convection is described in the tropical waves and special features sections above. GULF OF MEXICO... A high-pressure ridge extends from the central Atlantic, through the Florida Straits, to the central Gulf. Winds are gentle to moderate from the S-SW across the majority of the basin. Exceptions are fresh SSE winds along the S Texas coast, fresh SW winds along the coastal waters from SE Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, and fresh E near the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, with 1-3 ft in the far SE basin. Mid to upper level diffluent flow continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms in the far eastern basin. Smoke due to agriculture fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities in coastal waters from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the Straits of Florida to the upper Texas coast will generally persist through the week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, locally fresh at times. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the central and western Gulf for at least the next day or two. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6- 9 ft range in the central and SW Caribbean, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the SW Caribbean from 09N to 16N between 79W to 84W. Smoke due to agricultural fires over portions of Central America may be reducing visibilities in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across the central Caribbean through early Thu. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras this evening, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across SW portions to the west of 80W through at least Mon evening. An area of low pressure, possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu and may approach the NE Caribbean thereafter. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on a gale warning and associated area of low pressure (AL92) in the eastern Atlantic which has a high tropical cyclone development potential. In the far western Atlantic, a diffluent pattern aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 75W, including the northern Bahamas. The tail end of a weak cold front extends from 31N71W to 30N72W. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh SW winds east of the front. Otherwise high pressure dominates the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high near 32N48W. This is supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N, where seas are 4-7 ft. South of 20N, trade winds are moderate to fresh with 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, Bermuda high pressure extends a ridge SW through the central Bahamas to the SE Gulf of Mexico, and will continue to dominate through mid-week. A weak cold front off the SE US coast will linger and gradually dissipate through the early part of the week with locally fresh winds E of it tonight. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will prevail the next several days, locally fresh offshore N Hispaniola and offshore N Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will continue from the NW Bahamas to around 70W through tonight. An area of low pressure, possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu through the end of the week. $$ Flynn