000 AXNT20 KNHC 180005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jun 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave is SW of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis near 28W and with a 1011 mb low near 10N28W. The wave axis extends from 05N to 14N, and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 13N between 25W and 33W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves westward at 13 to 17 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium (60%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours, and a high (80%) chance of development through the next seven days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the tropical wave (AL92) in the eastern Atlantic. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 41W from 02N to 10N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this time. A tropical wave is SE of the Windward Islands with axis near 55W from 02N to 10N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No nearby significant convection is noted. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 78W, moving west at 20-25 kt. The wave is interacting with the East Pacific Monsoon Trough and is generating heavy showers and tstms S of 16N between NW Colombia and the western coastal waters of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 1011 mb low near 10N28W to 05N44W. The ITCZ continues from 05N44W to 05N52W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 14N between 10W and 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds, except for locally moderate winds along the Gulf coasts from Veracruz to Tampa Bay. By 2100 UTC, a surface trough formed inland the Yucatan Peninsula, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E along the Peninsula offshore waters. Seas are 3 to 4 ft basin-wide. In the NE gulf, middle to upper level diffluence is supporting heavy showers and tstms along the Florida Panhandle coastal waters, the Florida Big Bend to just N of the Tampa Bay area. Otherwise, smoke due to agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities in coastal waters from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure and ridging will generally persist through early next week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. A weak front will sink into the far northern Gulf by mid-week. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the W Gulf for at least the next day or two. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a tropical wave in the SW Caribbean. The pressure difference between Atlantic subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over Panama and NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trade winds in the central, portions of the SW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central and SW Caribbean as a result. Trades are gentle to moderate elsewhere in the basin, with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades from the central Caribbean to Nicaragua through Sun morning, then again across the central Caribbean Sun night through early Wed. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then moderate to fresh through Wed. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across SW portions to the west of 76W through Sun night. A strong tropical wave, and possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1025 mb centered near 32N49W extends a ridge WSW to the central Bahamas and SE to the Canary Islands. This is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the subtropical Atlantic waters where seas range between 4 to 7 ft. Over the E Florida immediate offshore waters, a mid to upper level trough is generating heavy showers and tstms between 73W and 80W, including the northern and central Bahamas. For the forecast W of 55W, the high pressure over the central Atlantic will remain in place today before shifting slightly northward Sun and Mon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected N of the Bahamas and W of 72W this evening through Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the next several days, and locally fresh at times along northern Hispaniola. A strong tropical wave, and possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu. $$ Ramos