950 AXNT20 KNHC 161737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jun 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23W from 05N to 14N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection, possibly enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is from 06N to 15N between 16W and 24W. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours, and a medium chance through the next seven days as the wave moves west across the tropical Atlantic. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 33W from 04N to 11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection, possibly enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is observed from 06N to 09N between 25W and 37W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 47W from 02N to 10N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, from 12N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is mainly inland over central Venezuela, producing some scattered showers. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W to 08N25W to 05N48W. All convection is described in the tropical waves section. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A near stationary decaying frontal boundary is inland over the FL Panhandle, producing clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters. No other areas of showers are noted at this time. Elsewhere, the sensible weather is dominated by a surface ridge that extends all the way into the west-central Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is observed around the ridge, except in the SW Gulf, where SE winds are moderate to fresh, and the NE Gulf, where WSW winds are moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except in Florida Straits where seas are 1-3 ft in light to gentle winds. Haze due to agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities to near 5 nm at coastal sites from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will generally persist through Mon. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period, becoming locally strong tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for at least the next day or two. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the lower pressure over Colombia is supporting easterly near gale-force winds over the south-central Carribbean Sea off the coast of Colombia. The strong to near-gale force winds extend from the coast of Colombia to 16N between 72W and 77W, based on the latest ASCAT satellite imagery. Within the same area, seas are 8-12 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail with 4-7 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 13N west of 79W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across most of the central Caribbean through early Sat, then gradually spread westward and weaken this weekend. Winds are expected to pulse to near gale- force in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is located from 26N to 29N between 65W and 68W and is moving generally northeast. Another area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is located from 27N to 31N between 72W and off the coast of Florida. A high pressure of 1024 mb is centered at 23N53W. This high pressure is currently dominating the sensible weather in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Due this high pressure, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are analyzed across the basin and depicted well by the latest scatterometer passes. Seas across the basin are 3-6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure will remain in place through Sat before shifting slightly northward Sun and Mon. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft are expected north of 30N and west of 65W through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the next several days, and locally fresh at times along northern Hispaniola. $$ Rosado-Vazquez/Mahoney