000 AXNT20 KNHC 151031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 26W from 12N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 22W and 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 44W from 11N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along 06N. A western Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 61W from 05N-13N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are present S of 09N. A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 81W from 14N southward across Panama into the East Pacific, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 14N between 79W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W to 06N29W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N29W to 05N42W, then resumes from 06N45W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 44W and 58W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous showers and thunderstorms over northern Colombia, Panama, and Nicaragua. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An outflow boundary is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters mainly N of 27N and E of 84W. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge stretching westward from central Florida to the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found at the south- central Gulf, north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf waters and low pressure over NE Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh SE winds across the W Gulf through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula will weaken by Thu morning, then fresh winds will pulse each night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for the next few days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin. An upper-level trough over the northwestern portion of the basin continues to induce scattered showers over eastern Cuba and western Hispaniola, and nearby Caribbean waters. A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 27N58W continues to support a trade-wind regime across the basin, except for monsoonal winds near Panama and Costa Rica. Latest scatterometer and altimeter data reveal strong to near-gale easterly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft at the south- central basin, just north of Colombia. Fresh to strong ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail south of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Gentle monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas in trade-wind swell are found offshore Panama and Costa Rica. Fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across most of the central Caribbean through Mon. Near gale-force winds are expected to pulse at nighttime in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia through Fri night, then fresh to strong winds will pulse each night through the weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin. An outflow boundary is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic mainly W of 75W. An upper-level trough over the western Atlantic continues to spark scattered showers from the southeast Bahamas northward between 63W-72W. A 1022 mb high is centered near 27N58W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 30N28W to 22N41W. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are impacting waters east of Florida N of 27N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted from 19N to 25N between 52W and the southeast Bahamas/Greater Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed northerly/southerly swells N of 19N/20N between 20W and the northwest/central Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 20W. Farther south, gentle to moderate N to NNE trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident from 08N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 35W. To the west, moderate to fresh NE to E trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are seen from 06N to 19N/20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High will continue supporting gentle to moderate winds during the next several days south of 29N. North of 30N and west of 70W, fresh to strong SW winds are expected through Fri night. $$ ERA