000 AXNT20 KNHC 142224 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 24W from 03N to 12N, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the wave N of 05N. A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 41W from 03N to 11N, and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 59W from Guyana to 13N, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present S of 12N between 53W and 62W. A Caribbean tropical wave along 79W S of 14N is moving W at 10 kt into the East Pacific. Scattered moderate convection is occurring offshore Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and extends SW to 07N29W. The ITCZ continues westward from 07N29W to 06N39W where it is intercepted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues from 06N43W to 05N53W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves depicted in the section above, scattered moderate convection has developed from 04N to 08N between 49W and 53W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge stretching westward from the central Atlantic to the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Moderate to locally fresh mainly S winds dominate, with a diurnal surface trough along the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula causing locally strong winds just off the coast. Seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail over the basin, although some localized 4 to 6 ft seas are likely occurring where the strong winds are present N of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf waters and low pressure over NE Mexico will support moderate to fresh SE winds across the W Gulf through Thu. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected north and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may continue to produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for the next day or two. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave in the SW basin. A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 26N57W continues to support a trade-wind regime across the basin, except for monsoonal winds near Panama and Costa Rica. Strong E winds are occurring over the south central basin, S of 15N between 68W and 79W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in this area. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft are ongoing in and near the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the rest of the basin, except gentle winds are occurring offshore Panama, Costa Rica, and Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across most of the central Caribbean through Mon. Near gale-force winds are expected to occur in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia late night to early morning hours through Fri night, as the Bermuda High strengthens some. Pulsing fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. An Atlantic ridge extends westward from a 1022 mb high centered near 26N57W to southern Florida and supports gentle to moderate flow over most of the Atlantic basin north of 20N. Seas in this region are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft N of 28N between 30W and 50W and 1 to 3 ft near the Bahamas and offshore Florida. Also, in the far eastern Atlantic, offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist. S of 20N, trade winds dominate, at moderate to fresh levels W of 45W and gentle to moderate to the E. Seas in the trade wind belt are generally 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High, which extends a ridge along 26N, will be forcing generally gentle to moderate winds during the next several days south of 29N. North of 29N and west of 65W, fresh to strong SW winds are expected through Fri night. $$ KONARIK